The people of Makerfield will head to the polls on Thursday, June 18, to vote in a by-election that could have major political implications. The vacant seat, hotly contested, has kept Greater Manchester on edge since the former MP announced his departure.
Background of the By-Election
On May 14, Labour MP Josh Simons confirmed he would stand down from his Makerfield seat to allow Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to run as a candidate. Simons stated he was vacating the seat so Burnham could 'return to his home, fight to re-enter Parliament, and if elected, drive the change our country is crying out for'. The by-election date was set for June 18, with polls open from 7am to 10pm.
This by-election follows Labour losing council seats across Greater Manchester to Reform UK and the Green Party on May 7, weakening their grip in councils like Bolton, Tameside, and Oldham.
Candidates in the Race
There are 14 candidates: Jake Austin (Lib Dems), Count Binface (Count Binface Party), Andy Burnham (Labour), Dan Clarke (Libertarian Party), Ed Gemmell (Climate Party), Paul Gould (independent), Robert Kenyon (Reform), Robert Pownall (independent), Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain), Sarah Wakefield (Green Party), and Michael Winstanly (Conservatives).
The campaign saw controversy when TV personality Carol Vorderman urged women not to vote for Reform's candidate after old social media posts resurfaced. Reform leader Nigel Farage defended Kenyon, saying the comments were 'taken wildly out of context'.
Polling and Stakes
An Opinium poll on Saturday showed Burnham leading with 46%, followed by Reform on 41%. The stakes are high as Burnham is tipped to challenge Sir Keir Starmer's leadership if he wins.
What Happens if Burnham Wins?
If Burnham wins, he becomes a Labour MP again and can start the path to potential leadership. To become Prime Minister, he would need to win a Labour leadership contest, triggered when 20% of MPs (over 80) back a replacement candidate.
Burnham would need support from enough backbenchers to launch a contest. Written nominations must be submitted to the party's general secretary. Incumbent leader Sir Keir would be on the ballot by default. The leader is selected via preferential voting; if no candidate exceeds 50%, the last-place candidate is eliminated until a winner emerges.
While Burnham has confirmed he would seek to enter any leadership contest, No 10 has said Sir Keir will not set a timetable to step aside. The Prime Minister stated he wants to lead Labour into the next general election.
Could Burnham Become Prime Minister?
If Sir Keir resigns, it triggers a Labour leadership contest. The contest occurs in two stages: first, Labour MPs reduce candidates to two; second, party members vote between the final two. The new leader becomes Prime Minister without necessarily calling a general election.
What if Burnham Loses?
If Burnham loses, his political future is uncertain. He would remain Mayor of Greater Manchester but lose momentum for a leadership challenge. The result could also signal Labour's vulnerability to Reform UK.
Mayoral Succession
If Burnham wins the by-election, he must stand down as Mayor. The Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA) confirmed a mayoral by-election would be held within 25 to 35 working days, likely on July 30.
