Emmanuel Macron, host of the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, has crafted an agenda designed to be as appealing as possible to his guest of honour, Donald Trump. However, the French president remains uncertain whether Trump, known for his erratic summit attendance, will stay for the entire three-day event or disrupt proceedings throughout his stay.
Trump left the previous G7 summit in Kananaskis, Canada, early to address the Iran conflict, and this year, Iran may again divert his attention. Additionally, he insulted Macron before leaving Canada last year, calling him 'publicity seeking' and stating that Macron 'always gets it wrong.'
Macron, attending his 10th G7 summit, has chosen not to take offence. He even delayed the summit's start to allow Trump to celebrate his 80th birthday with a UFC event at the White House. Macron has also arranged a dinner at Versailles on Wednesday night as an incentive for Trump to remain for the entire summit. French officials note Trump's fondness for the palace's gold and insist the two leaders respect each other.
Whether Trump completes the summit remains uncertain. Reports from Washington suggest he is not in a celebratory mood, and he may be tempted to criticise the other six leaders—representing Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the UK—for not supporting his earlier plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz through force. At best, he will demand swift action on the planned Franco-British naval taskforce to enforce freedom of navigation, as outlined in the US-Iran joint memorandum. De-mining is also urgently needed to allow hundreds of tankers stuck in the strait to reach global markets.
The other G7 leaders, all opposed to the Iran war, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz describing it as a US humiliation, must decide whether to focus on the future or pass judgment on a war that has disrupted the global economy.
Trump appears to deny the war's economic impact. He told Fox News last week that oil prices had not risen as much as predicted, adding, 'You know what I really love. I love the inflation.'
The World Bank cut its forecast for global growth this year from 2.9% to 2.5%, the lowest since the Covid pandemic. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to a 31-year high as wholesale prices climb at their fastest pace in three years. Europe's central bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2023 amid fears inflation could exceed 3% this year. French central bank governor Emmanuel Moulin, Macron's former chief of staff, predicted 'persistent' inflation, noting that container shipping rates have doubled since the war began and are unlikely to decline soon.
The French foreign ministry warns that the world's poorest will suffer most as fertiliser and food prices soar. The World Bank predicts commodity prices will rise 22%, compared to the 7% decline expected at the start of the year. Chronic indebtedness will worsen as interest rates rise, and international development aid is falling, stripping away buffers that countries rely on for schools, health care, and food assistance.
Trump also faces pressure on two other persistent conflicts: Ukraine and Gaza. Macron wants Europe to play a greater role in resolving both, noting that Europe, not the US, is saving Ukraine from bankruptcy. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni promotes the idea of an EU envoy for Ukraine, with Finnish President Alexander Stubb mentioned, but Macron is sceptical. European defence credibility has been weakened by the failure of the Franco-German FCAS fighter-jet project, and UK Defence Secretary John Healey's resignation highlights Britain's fiscal problems.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will attend on Tuesday. Recent battlefield progress allows him to remind Trump that he holds more cards than the US president thought, though Ukraine's civilian death toll in May was the highest since the war began.
France will press the US to resolve the impasse in Gaza over Hamas disarmament. Trump will meet leaders from Qatar, UAE, and Egypt to discuss the crisis and Iran's fallout. No joint communique on the conflicts will be signed; instead, Macron will issue a summary.
Macron plans to issue concise communiques after each working session. Common ground will be sought on critical mineral supply chains, artificial intelligence, containing damage from geopolitical conflicts, and reforming international development partnerships. Tech titans attending on Wednesday include OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Mistral AI founder Arthur Mensch, giving Macron a chance to promote regulatory initiatives, including banning social media for those under 15 or 16.
The climate crisis, typically a G7 staple, has been kept off the agenda to avoid a row. Instead, Macron has made global economic imbalances—code for booming Chinese exports and accusations of state subsidies fuelling a record trade surplus—a centrepiece of the summit, as it unites Europe and the US in identifying a shared culprit.
China's success in high-value products like electric vehicles alarms Europe, as these sectors were expected to be dominated by the West. For France and other EU states facing manufacturing job losses, protectionism and EU tariffs on Chinese products seem like the only solution. However, Macron has framed the debate around collective solidarity rather than China-bashing to prevent further fragmentation of the multilateral trading system. The G7 must 'help China generate the internal demand it really needs,' he explained at an event attended by Chinese Vice-Premier Zhang Guoqing. Europe must address under-investment, Macron added. Zhang denied unfair trade practices, arguing China cannot be blamed for its successful industrial policy.
If all else fails, the Évian golf course, dating back to 1904, is closed for the three days, offering an escape route for the world's most famous 80-year-old golfer.
