Michigan Senate Debate Exposes Democratic Divide
A recent debate between two Democrats vying for one of the most competitive US Senate seats in Michigan laid bare the tension between progressive and moderate camps over the Israel-Gaza war. Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive contender, accused pro-Israel groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac) of buying off politicians, saying, "So long as our politicians continue to be bought off by Aipac, do not be surprised when we fight wars that are in their best interest to annex Lebanon, or to do genocide in Gaza."
Moderate US Representative Haley Stevens, who benefits from pro-Israel spending, countered that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was "trashing" her on CNN that day. "No one owns my vote and no one owns my policies," she said during the debate. "Anyone who is contributing to my Senate campaign is doing so because of my proven record of fighting for Michigan."
Shifting Public Opinion on Israel
A June poll by the Associated Press found that a third of US adults and roughly half of Democrats believe Israel has committed genocide in Gaza. The share of Democrats who said the US was too supportive of Israel reached nearly 60%, up from 45% in January 2024. While younger Democrats are more likely to hold this view, older Democrats increasingly share it, the poll found.
Rahm Emanuel, a former Obama official and moderate Democrat, emphasized in a speech in Tel Aviv that US military aid to Israel should end, and said he would not take money from Aipac—statements that would have been taboo for a moderate Democrat a few years ago.
Pro-Israel Spending in Michigan
The United Democracy Project, an Aipac-affiliated Super Pac, has spent about $11 million to boost Stevens or oppose El-Sayed so far in the Michigan primary, with more ad buys scheduled ahead of the 4 August primary. The group is one of the biggest spenders in congressional elections.
"We are trying to ensure that pro-Israel Democrats have a voice in the primary process," said Patrick Dorton, a spokesman for the Aipac Super Pac. "There is an insidious attempt by fringe left socialists to drive pro-Israel Democrats out of the party. We are not going to let what happened to the Labour party in the UK happen to the Democratic party in the United States."
Progressive Victories Nationwide
Pro-Israel groups face increasing headwinds nationwide. In New York, democratic socialists who spoke out against the war in Gaza have notched victories against incumbents. In Colorado, a Democratic socialist fired after speaking out about Gaza beat a longtime representative. A doctor who worked in Gaza won a Democratic primary in New Jersey. In Illinois, pro-Israel groups created pop-up Pacs with benign names to spend big in Democratic primaries, largely without success.
However, establishment picks with backing from Aipac-affiliated groups continue to win in many places. Adrian Boafo won a Democratic primary in Maryland after benefiting from millions from pro-Israel groups.
"There isn't a one-size-fits-all answer," said Tali deGroot, vice-president of political and digital strategy for J Street, a liberal pro-Israel and pro-peace lobby group.
Gaza as a Litmus Test
Foreign policy usually doesn't crack the top five issues voters rank in a general election, deGroot noted. But in Democratic primaries, a candidate's position on Gaza serves as a symbol of their willingness to challenge the status quo. "A candidate's willingness to buck the status quo of our foreign policy is a good example, a good symbol for them to show that they're going to be willing to buck the status quo on all kinds of issues that people care about right now," she said.
Andy Levin, a former congressman who lost his seat to Stevens in 2022 after Aipac poured millions into the race, said the Gaza issue exemplifies questions about authenticity and truth-telling in politics. "There's something about taking a position on Israel, Palestine and Gaza that is about authenticity," he said.
Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist state representative in Wisconsin running for governor, said standing up for Palestine is about integrity. "Voters understand that a politician unwilling to fight against the massacre of children abroad (which we're funding), they won't stand up for folks back home," she said.
Voter Concerns and Anti-Establishment Sentiment
Darrin Madison, a state representative in Wisconsin, said voters' number one concern is affordability, followed by questions about whether candidates are "bought out by special interests." Misty Ramsey, a delivery driver in Macomb County, Michigan, said she felt the American public had been "conditioned to not care" about Gaza. "If you're pro-Israel: fuck you," she said. "There shouldn't be a question of if it's OK or not."
Ali Fawaz, an independent voter in Dearborn, Michigan, said most people in his community have direct ties to Palestine or Lebanon and are frustrated with both parties for aiding Israel and with outsize spending by pro-Israel groups. "When it comes to the presidency, whether it's Democrat or Republican, we've seen for the last 25 years there hasn't been a single change in the trajectory of what's going on in the Middle East," he said.
Levin described a broader anti-establishment wave that pushes back on Democratic inaction. "Are you awake? Are you paying attention? Do you see how mad Republican and Democratic primary voters are? They're sick of it," he said.
Litmus Test for Authenticity
Kat Abughazaleh, who ran in a Democratic primary for Congress in Illinois and lost, said voters frequently brought up Israel/Palestine as a "litmus test for a lot of reasons." Madison added, "If you aren't willing to take that stance, what other communities are you willing to abandon? Is that folks of color, rural communities, working-class communities?"
