US Population Growth Rate Plummets Following Trump Immigration Policies
New estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau reveal a significant slowdown in America's population growth during 2025, with analysts pointing to Donald Trump's immigration policies as a contributing factor. The nation's population reached 341.8 million people, but the growth rate dropped sharply to just 0.5 per cent.
A Dramatic Decline from Previous Years
This figure represents a substantial decrease from the nearly 1 per cent growth recorded in 2024, which had been the highest annual increase since 2001 and was largely driven by immigration. The previous year's estimates had placed the U.S. population at approximately 340 million, highlighting how quickly demographic trends have shifted.
Immigration saw a particularly notable reduction, with an increase of only 1.3 million people last year compared to 2.8 million recorded in 2024. The census report did not differentiate between legal and undocumented immigration in its latest figures, making comprehensive analysis more challenging for researchers.
Historical Context and Recent Enforcement
Historically, the lowest growth rate in the past 125 years occurred in 2021 during the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, when the U.S. population expanded by just 0.16 per cent. Before that, the previous record low was just under 0.5% in 1919 at the height of the Spanish flu outbreak.
Tuesday's data release comes as researchers have been attempting to determine the effects of the second Trump administration's immigration crackdown following the Republican president's return to the White House in January 2025. Trump made addressing the surge of migrants at the southern border a central issue in his successful 2024 presidential campaign.
Timing and Methodology of the Data
The numbers made public this week reflect population change from July 2024 to July 2025, covering the final months of President Joe Biden's Democratic administration and the first half of Trump's initial year back in office. The figures capture a period that includes the beginning of enforcement surges in Los Angeles and Portland, Oregon, but do not reflect the impact of later crackdowns in Chicago, New Orleans, Memphis, Tennessee, and Minneapolis, Minnesota.
The 2025 numbers represent a jarring divergence from 2024, when net international migration accounted for 84% of the nation's 3.3 million-person increase from the year before. The previous year's jump in immigration was partly attributable to a new method of counting that included people admitted for humanitarian reasons.
Expert Analysis and Bureau Challenges
"They do reflect recent trends we have seen in out-migration, where the numbers of people coming in is down and the numbers going out is up," explained Eric Jensen, a senior research scientist at the Census Bureau, during discussions last week.
Unlike the comprehensive once-a-decade census that determines congressional representation and funding distribution, these population estimates are calculated from government records and internal Census Bureau data. The release of the 2025 population estimates was delayed by last fall's federal government shutdown and comes during a challenging period for the Census Bureau and other U.S. statistical agencies.
The bureau, which serves as the largest statistical agency in the United States, lost approximately 15% of its workforce last year due to buyouts and layoffs that were part of cost-cutting efforts by the White House and its Department of Government Efficiency.
Concerns About Political Influence
Other recent actions by the Trump administration, including the firing of Erika McEntarfer as Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, have raised concerns about potential political meddling at U.S. statistical agencies. However, Brookings Institution demographer William Frey noted that bureau staffers appear to have been "doing this work as usual without interference."
"So I have no reason to doubt the numbers that come out," Frey added, suggesting that despite organizational challenges, the demographic data remains reliable for analysis and policy consideration.
