A stark demographic shift is on the horizon for the United States, with a major government study projecting that from 2030, the number of deaths will permanently surpass the number of births.
The Tipping Point for American Population Growth
According to the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) latest Demographic Outlook, the nation is set to reach a critical juncture in just six years. Starting in 2030, the annual number of deaths reported across America will exceed the number of children being born. This inversion of natural population change means that net immigration – the number of people moving to the US minus those leaving – will become the only source of population growth.
The report, published on 8 January 2026, attributes this looming shift to two converging trends: Americans are having fewer children, and immigration has slowed significantly. "Over time, the negative net contribution of births and deaths increasingly offsets the positive contribution of net immigration, until population growth slows to zero in 2056," the CBO analysis states. It adds a grim forecast: "The population is expected to shrink thereafter."
Policy Impacts and Plummeting Fertility
Congressional forecasters have revised their population growth projections downward by a substantial 7 million people for the next decade. They cite President Donald Trump's aggressive immigration crackdown, initiated after he took office last year, alongside persistently falling birth rates as the primary causes.
The administration's policies, which include large-scale deportation operations and raids, have had a measurable effect. White House data claims over 2.5 million immigrants without legal status left the US last year, with 605,000 deported and the rest choosing to 'self-deport'. The CBO report confirms that changes in net immigration projections were the largest factor in reducing its population estimate for the 2025-2035 period.
Fertility rates are also in steep decline. Analysts have lowered their expectation for the total fertility rate to just 1.53 births per woman in 2026 – far below the 2.1 'replacement rate' needed to maintain a stable population. Native-born women are projected to have a rate of 1.50 by 2032. While foreign-born women currently have a higher rate of 1.79, this too is expected to fall.
Economic and Social Consequences of a Shrinking Nation
The economic ramifications of a stalling and then declining population are projected to be severe. A central concern is the ageing demographic profile. As the large baby-boomer cohort enters retirement, the ratio of workers to retirees will shrink, straining social safety nets.
The number of Americans receiving Social Security is set to rise from 349 million this year to 364 million in 2056. However, with fewer working-age people contributing to these programmes and providing care, the system faces unprecedented pressure. "The segment of the population age 65 or older is projected to grow more quickly, on average, than younger groups, causing the average age of the population to rise," the report notes.
The CBO emphasises that its forecasts for births, deaths, and immigration are inherently uncertain and that small changes could alter the trajectory. However, the overarching trend is clear: without sustained immigration, the United States will join the ranks of nations grappling with the profound challenges of a shrinking, ageing populace.
