Net migration to the UK has fallen sharply to 171,000 in 2025, down from a peak of 944,000 in the year to March 2023, according to official figures from the Office for National Statistics. The decline, driven by a 47% drop in non-EU workers, marks the lowest annual figure since 2021 and provides a boost for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government.
Despite this steep fall, a study by the thinktank British Future reveals a significant gap between public perception and reality. The research found that 67% of people with sceptical views on immigration believe net migration increased in 2025, while six in ten of those who want reduced immigration think numbers are still rising. Only 15% of the public expect net migration to fall further next year.
The study also highlights widespread misconceptions about the composition of immigration. Respondents believed asylum seekers account for 33% of immigration, when the true figure is around 9%. Similarly, they thought students make up 24%, whereas they represent over half of all immigration.
Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said the perception gap is shaping the immigration debate and politics more broadly. “It’s little wonder voters think net migration is going up when the only debate we have is about how to bring it down,” he said. “We should be having a conversation about how to manage the pressures and gains of migration to Britain.”
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood acknowledged the 69% drop but said the government plans to go further, citing pressure on local communities. Shadow home secretary Chris Philp also called for more action, while Reform UK has pledged to reach “net zero” immigration. The party’s leader, Nigel Farage, falsely claimed the drop was mainly due to British emigration.
Sophie Stowers of More in Common noted that visceral images of small boat arrivals and asylum hotels influence public opinion more than official statistics. “Net migration or legal migration is only part of the story,” she said. Immigration ranks as the third most important issue for voters, behind the cost of living and the NHS.
