Training More Britons May Not Reduce Net Migration or Address Skills Shortages, Oxford Study Reveals
A new report from the University of Oxford's Migration Observatory has cast doubt on the effectiveness of plans to train more UK-based workers as a means to lower net migration and plug skills gaps. The research highlights that local workers can be difficult to attract into certain roles due to poor pay and conditions, while other factors drive employer demand for migrant labour.
Challenges in Reducing Reliance on Overseas Staff
Keir Starmer's proposal to compel employers to train domestic workers and reduce dependency on overseas staff may not achieve its intended goals, according to the findings. The 13-page briefing notes that skill shortages are just one element influencing the need for migrant workers. For instance, hundreds of thousands of recent arrivals on student or dependant visas will compete with domestic workers for jobs, complicating efforts to shift labour dynamics.
"It is difficult to create effective incentives in the immigration system that explicitly encourage employers to invest in domestic training," the report states. "A sectoral approach could encourage 'free riders', while an individual approach is difficult to monitor." Significant data gaps further hinder a comprehensive understanding of how migration impacts the UK's skills base.
Limited Impact of Work Visa Restrictions
The study points out that restricting work visas only affects a small portion of the labour supply. Home Office data shows that of the 3.45 million non-EU citizens with valid immigration status at the end of 2024, only 17% were main applicants on work visas. Most migrants arrive via other routes, such as family, dependant, or student visas, and still possess work authorisation.
Ben Brindle, a researcher at the Observatory and co-author of the report, explained: "Any plan to make the UK labour market less reliant on overseas staff and encourage employers to train UK workers instead may not fill skills gaps in the UK economy. There isn't a fixed number of jobs in the economy. For example, they dropped during Covid and then increased again afterwards."
Government Policies and Sectoral Responses
In response to these challenges, the government has implemented measures such as ending overseas recruitment of care workers in 2025 and restricting visa access for middle-skilled roles like butchers and chefs. From this summer, employers in key sectors will need approved workforce plans to recruit from abroad, particularly for roles in engineering, IT, and telecommunications.
A UK government spokesperson commented: "Net migration is now at its lowest level in five years, down by more than two-thirds under this government. In the year to September 2025, visas issued to main applicants across all work routes dropped by 27%. We are building a structured, evidence-led approach covering skills, migration and wider labour market policies."
However, the report cautions that increasing the domestically trained workforce does not automatically lead to lower migration, as demand for skills can rise concurrently, potentially cancelling out gains in supply.
