For more than a decade, Conservatives have promised to crack down on illegal migration and slash legal arrivals, but repeated failures have infuriated voters and further demonised immigrants. Rishi Sunak's bold 2023 pledge to 'stop the boats' has unravelled, with small boat arrivals this year higher than in any of the previous four years.
Sunak's decision to stake his reputation on an unachievable goal startled colleagues. A long-term Home Office staffer recalled: 'It was obviously stupid to say you’re going to stop the boats, when you’re very unlikely to be able to.' Despite doubling down with branded lecterns and videos, the number of crossings dipped only slightly in 2023, and by June 2024, total arrivals stood at 12,901.
Public dissatisfaction with immigration handling is at a record high, with 69% dissatisfied, according to thinktank British Future. Sunak's failure to 'stop the boats' is the most cited reason. The gulf between rhetoric and reality is stark: net migration soared to 745,000 in 2022, up from 184,000 in 2019, mostly due to legal migration.
Despite political focus on small boats, polling shows most voters think illegal migration is larger than legal, when in fact an estimated 96% of immigrants arrive legally. Some within government have privately welcomed the post-Brexit increase, but the Conservative record since 2010 is a tale of ambitious targets and harsh policies that have not reduced immigration.
