Labour MPs are reportedly planning to use upcoming migration figures to pressure the government into abandoning its immigration reforms, according to sources. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is set to publish net migration data for 2025 on Thursday, which experts predict could show a decline to below 200,000 for the first time since March 2021.
Dr Ben Brindle of the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory cautioned that any drop in net migration is likely to be temporary, driven by a spike in departures following restrictions introduced by the previous Conservative government. He noted that higher emigration levels are followed by lower figures, and net migration could rise again within five years.
Labour MP Andy McDonald voiced opposition to the reforms, which include increasing the qualifying period for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) from five to ten years, and restricting migrants’ access to benefits and social housing until they become British citizens. McDonald described the retrospective changes as “un-British” and economically foolish, urging the policy to be “quickly binned”.
The reforms, announced by Home Secretary Yvette Cooper in November, also propose that those in the country illegally could face up to 30 years before obtaining long-term residency. Labour backbenchers are expected to use the falling net migration numbers to argue the measures are unnecessary, particularly amid continued shortages in sectors like social care.
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who has been critical of the reforms, is also seeking a return to Westminster via a by-election in Makerfield, with speculation he could challenge Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership and reverse the policies.
