Keir Starmer’s pledge to “smash the gangs” profiting from small boat crossings has followed a pattern set by Conservative-led governments of employing “bullish rhetoric” with little evidence that it can be delivered, an expert has claimed.
Madeleine Sumption, director of the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory, says the prime minister has repeated the mistakes of Rishi Sunak and David Cameron by making “bold claims with great certainty about things governments only partially control”. The UK and French governments are wrangling over a new deal to stop people-smuggling gangs from operating in the Channel.
As of 25 February, 2,209 people had arrived in the UK in small boats in 2026 – up by about 7% compared with the same period in 2025. Starmer brushed off criticism of the slogan at prime minister’s question time last week after Nigel Farage accused it of being “a total, abject failure”.
Sumption, whose book What Is Immigration Policy For? is published on Tuesday, said: “Governments of all stripes like to make bold claims, from ‘stop the boats’ and ‘smash the gangs’ to ‘net migration falling below 100,000’. In practice the results have disappointed, because factors outside their control have played a huge role.”
Successive ministers have felt unable to be honest with the public about the possibility that their policies may not work, Sumption said. “People say they want their politicians to be honest, but when it comes to immigration policies the most honest political pitch often doesn’t work.”
