New official figures are predicted to reveal that net migration to the United Kingdom is set to fall sharply to levels not seen since before the Brexit referendum, even as public perception moves in the opposite direction.
The Reality Versus The Perception
According to the thinktank British Future, net migration figures due for release are forecast to drop to approximately 300,000. This represents a dramatic decrease, amounting to less than a third of the 2023 figures. This projected number would bring migration back to the pre-Brexit levels that were a focal point of the 2016 referendum campaign.
However, research published by Ipsos and British Future highlights a significant disconnect between this statistical reality and public belief. The study found that a majority of the British public, 56%, incorrectly believes that immigration increased last year. In fact, the numbers had halved.
Looking forward, the perception gap widens further. Only 16% of the public expects net migration to be lower in a year's time. In contrast, more than twice as many people (38%) anticipate an increase, with 31% expecting it to remain the same.
Understanding the Official Figures
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently provided updated estimates using a new methodology that offers a more accurate count of British nationals leaving the country. This revision showed a higher and earlier peak in net migration of 944,000 in the year to March 2023, up from a previous estimate of 906,000.
Critically, the ONS now estimates that net migration had already fallen to 345,000 in the year to December 2024, driven by an increase in emigration by UK nationals. The cumulative net migration from 2021 to 2024 was about 97,000 lower than previously thought.
By examining UK visa data, British Future believes the decline is set to continue, with the upcoming official release expected to confirm the drop towards the 300,000 mark.
Political Pressure and Public Dissatisfaction
This gap between fact and feeling is creating a challenging political environment. Dissatisfaction with the government's handling of immigration has risen to 56%, up from 48% last summer, though still lower than the 69% dissatisfaction recorded with the previous Conservative government.
Among those who are dissatisfied, the most common reason cited (73%) was that "the government is not doing enough to stop migrant channel crossings." Other top reasons included the government being "too generous to migrants/asylum seekers" (65%) and "allowing too many people to claim asylum in Britain" (63%).
This public sentiment comes as the Home Office faces a significant financial pressure. A pre-budget document from the OBR indicated the department will need an additional £1.4bn due to a near 20% rise in small boat arrivals and an 8% increase in asylum seekers in supported accommodation.
Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, commented on the situation, stating: "Net migration is falling, with today’s figures likely to show another drop towards pre-Brexit levels of around 300,000 – yet our political debate hasn’t caught up. As numbers move closer to 'normal' levels, politicians can’t just keep competing over who will cut them further."
He added a warning for the current administration: "The risk for Keir Starmer’s government, which is promising to get a grip on numbers, is that constant crisis messaging only reinforces the public belief that asylum and immigration are out of control."
