Net migration to the UK is expected to drop to about 300,000, less than a third of 2023's figures, according to data from the British Future thinktank. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is due to release official figures on Thursday, which are predicted to show a decline to pre-Brexit levels.
British Future's analysis, based on UK visa data, suggests net migration will continue to fall. However, new research by Ipsos/British Future reveals that only 16% of the public expect net migration to be lower in a year's time, despite it halving last year. In contrast, 38% expect it to increase, and 31% think it will remain the same.
The ONS recently revised its estimates, showing a higher peak of 944,000 net migration in the year to March 2023, but also a fall to 345,000 in the year to December 2024. The new methodology reduced cumulative net migration from 2021 to 2024 by about 97,000.
Government proposals announced last week, which restrict settlement and benefits for migrants, are more stringent than most of the public would choose. Half of respondents think migrants in graduate-level jobs should wait five years or less for settlement, while 53% believe those in mid-skilled jobs should wait under 10 years.
Dissatisfaction with the government's handling of immigration stands at 56%, up from 48% last summer but below the 69% recorded under the Conservative government in February 2024. The main reason for dissatisfaction, cited by 73% of those unhappy, is the government not doing enough to stop migrant channel crossings.
Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said: 'Net migration is falling... yet our political debate hasn't caught up. As numbers move closer to normal levels, politicians can't just keep competing over who will cut them further.' The figures come as the Home Office faces an additional £1.4bn in costs due to a near 20% rise in small boat arrivals and an 8% increase in asylum seekers in supported accommodation.
