New official statistics have revealed a dramatic fall in net migration to the United Kingdom, providing a significant boost to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government. The figures show a decrease of nearly seventy percent compared to the previous year.
A Sharp Decline in Numbers
According to estimates released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), long-term net migration stood at 204,000 in the year to June. This marks a substantial drop from the 649,000 recorded in the previous twelve-month period. The decline aligns with the Labour Party's pledge to reduce migration levels, a key promise in their election campaign.
The new data comes just a week after Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced a major shake-up of the UK's immigration system. The reforms include stricter settlement rules, with individuals granted refugee status now facing reviews every 30 months. Ms Mahmood defended the measures, stating that illegal immigration is "tearing our country apart" and vowing to increase removals, including those of families with children.
The Perception Gap: Public Belief vs. Reality
Despite the sharp decline, a significant gap exists between the official figures and public perception. A survey conducted by the Ipsos/British Future Immigration Attitudes Tracker found that 56% of the British public believes net migration actually rose last year.
In reality, the trend has been firmly downward. The 2024 figures more than halved from 848,000 to 345,000, after peaking at 944,000 in 2023. Experts warn that relentless "crisis messaging" from politicians is creating a distorted view of the situation.
Sunder Katwala, director of the British Future thinktank, commented ahead of the ONS release: "Net migration is falling, with today’s figures likely to show another drop towards pre-Brexit levels of around 300,000 – yet our political debate hasn’t caught up." He highlighted the risk for the Starmer government, noting that constant talk of crisis only reinforces the public belief that the system is out of control.
Nuanced Public Attitudes and Policy Challenges
The research uncovered several complexities in British public opinion on immigration. For instance, most people believe asylum seekers account for a third of all immigration, while the actual figure was around 14% in the year to June.
While public attitudes are becoming more polarised, the study found that most people still hold balanced views. However, the proportion of people who believe immigration offers no benefits has more than doubled, from 7% in 2021 to 16% now. When it comes to desired levels, 41% of people want migration to go down "a lot", while a third are content for numbers to stay the same.
Interestingly, when asked about specific work visas, most people struggled to identify which sectors should see reductions. Only a minority advocated for cutting the numbers of doctors, care workers, lorry drivers, or seasonal farm workers.
Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said: "Overall, Britons still on balance prioritise a system that delivers control over simply reducing numbers to as low as possible." The report calls for a more honest debate, distinguishing legitimate public concerns from prejudice, and for practical measures such as scaling up the UK-France asylum deal and ending the use of asylum hotels.
