Relentless political rhetoric about a migration 'crisis' has created a major gap between public perception and reality, with most voters incorrectly believing that net migration to the UK increased last year, new research reveals.
The Perception Gap on Immigration
A survey from the Ipsos/British Future Immigration Attitudes Tracker, published today, found that 56% of the public believes net migration rose last year. This stands in stark contrast to the official figures, which show net migration more than halved in 2024, falling to an estimated 345,000 from a peak of 944,000 in 2023.
Experts warn that Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a significant challenge in communicating the truth, as constant crisis messaging risks convincing the public that immigration is 'out of control' even as the numbers plummet towards pre-Brexit levels of around 300,000.
What the Data Really Shows
The dramatic shift in migration patterns is a key fact being lost in the national conversation. After reaching a record high of 944,000 in 2023, net migration fell to 848,000 and then saw a steep decline to 345,000 in 2024.
Public understanding is also skewed regarding the composition of immigration. The study found that most people believe asylum seekers account for about a third of all immigration, when in reality the figure was approximately 14% in the year to June.
Sunder Katwala, director of the British Future thinktank, stated: "Net migration is falling, with today’s figures likely to show another drop towards pre-Brexit levels of around 300,000 – yet our political debate hasn’t caught up."
Political Consequences and Public Attitudes
The research indicates that attitudes are becoming more polarised. While a third of people want migration numbers to stay the same, 41% want it to go down 'a lot'. Notably, the proportion of people who claim immigration offers no benefits to the UK has more than doubled, rising from 7% in 2021 to 16%.
Gideon Skinner, senior director of UK Politics at Ipsos, commented: "It’s clear that immigration is rising up the public’s agenda... It is seen as a major source of tension in the UK, and attitudes are now more negative than they have been for some time."
Despite this, the report found nuance in public opinion. Most people struggled to identify which types of work migration they would cut, with only a minority advocating for reductions in the numbers of doctors, care workers, lorry drivers, or seasonal farm workers.
The report calls for a series of government actions, including scaling up the UK-France asylum deal, ending the use of asylum hotels by next year, and creating credible routes to settlement. It concludes that the debate must distinguish legitimate public concerns from prejudice.
