A new study by the thinktank British Future reveals a significant gap between public perception and reality regarding UK net migration. Despite official figures showing a sharp decline, a majority of Britons believe net migration is still rising.
Net migration fell from a peak of 944,000 in the year to March 2023 to 204,000 in the year to June 2025, and further to 171,000 in the year to December 2025, according to the Office for National Statistics. The drop was driven by a 47% decrease in non-EU arrivals for work.
British Future's research found that 67% of those with sceptical views on immigration think net migration increased in 2025, compared with 37% of those with more liberal views. Overall, six in ten people who want reduced immigration believe numbers are still rising. Only 15% expect lower net migration next year.
The study also highlighted misperceptions about the composition of immigration: people believe asylum seekers account for 33% of immigration, when the real figure is about 9%, and underestimate the share of students, who make up over half of immigration.
Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said the perception gap is shaping politics. “It’s little wonder voters think net migration is going up when the only debate we have is about how to bring it down,” he said. The research, conducted by Number Cruncher Politics, surveyed 3,003 adults across Great Britain in March.
Sophie Stowers of More in Common noted that images of small boat arrivals and asylum hotels evoke stronger reactions than official figures. “Net migration or legal migration is only part of the story,” she said. The report warns that if current trends continue, all parties may face a different immigration context by the 2029 election.
