Shabana Mahmood’s migration changes are expected to save just £600m – about 6% of the £10bn the home secretary claimed, according to the government’s own data. Under the plans, most people would have to wait 10 years to qualify for settled status, rather than the existing five-year period, which the home secretary argued would save costs on public services.
But only a fraction of the figure the home secretary suggested would be saved by the changes, according to data from the migration advisory committee obtained via a freedom of information request. Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London who obtained the data, said the savings were likely to be offset by costs of migrants leaving the UK and high earners being deterred from moving to the UK.
Last month Mahmood said that over the next five years 350,000 low-skilled workers and their dependants will qualify for settlement, giving them access to welfare, healthcare and social housing. She said that, without the changes, there would be “a £10bn drain on our public finances and further strain on public services, like housing and healthcare, already under immense pressure”.
The newly released data from the migration advisory committee suggests migrants are net contributors for the first two decades after arrival, only turning negative after about 40 years. Portes’ analysis of the data suggested the direct saving from delaying indefinite leave to remain is about £2,000 per care worker and £4,000 per dependant over the full 10-year delay period. Using Home Office estimates of the numbers of migrants approaching eligibility for settlement and their dependants, it suggests savings of approximately £600m over the 10-year period.
However, Portes said there were some caveats, as child benefit was not included in the data and there were different estimates of how many migrants would ultimately seek long-term settlement in the UK. Longer settlement times were also likely to lead to lower tax revenues as people remained in lower-skilled work linked to visas rather than potentially progressing to higher salaries.
The Labour-aligned thinktank IPPR said the £10bn figure cannot be reached without the majority of care workers and their dependents leaving the UK entirely, rather than waiting longer for settlement as Mahmood proposes. The Home Office is consulting on the changes, but they are not expected to be put to a parliamentary vote.
