A dramatic new opinion poll has delivered a devastating forecast for the Labour Party in Wales, suggesting it faces a historic defeat in May's Senedd elections that would see it ejected from the First Minister's office for the first time since devolution began.
Polling Data Points to Political Earthquake
The latest survey reveals a staggering collapse in support for Sir Keir Starmer's party. Labour's voting intention has plummeted to just 10 per cent, a figure that would represent its worst performance in Wales since the Senedd's electoral system was introduced 26 years ago. This puts them level with the Welsh Conservatives and only a single point ahead of the Green Party.
In stark contrast, Plaid Cymru is projected to emerge victorious with 33 per cent of the vote, closely followed by Nigel Farage's insurgent Reform UK party on 30 per cent. This seismic shift comes after Labour secured 30 of the 60 seats and around 37 per cent of the vote in the 2021 election.
Projected Seat Changes in an Expanded Senedd
The May election will see the Welsh Parliament expand from 60 to 96 members, with changes to both the voting system and constituencies. Based on the current polling data, the seat projections make for grim reading for Labour.
The forecast suggests Plaid Cymru could secure 39 seats, with Reform UK taking 34. Labour is projected to win a mere 10 seats, a catastrophic drop. The Conservatives are seen holding six seats, the Greens four, and the Liberal Democrats three.
Parties Frame the Election as a Two-Horse Race
Both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK have been quick to capitalise on the poll's findings, each framing the upcoming contest as a direct choice between their two visions for Wales.
A Plaid Cymru spokesman stated: 'This poll shows the momentum is firmly with Plaid Cymru... After years in power, Labour have given up on Wales. People are tired of broken promises... At the next election, the people of Wales face two choices of two futures.' They positioned their party as the only one that could 'stop Reform and deliver the new leadership Wales deserves.'
A Reform UK Wales spokesman echoed the sentiment, saying: 'It's clear to everybody here in Wales that the next Senedd election will be a two-horse race between Reform and Plaid.' They accused Plaid of promoting 'extreme policies' in tandem with Labour in Cardiff Bay and promised to 'restore common sense to Welsh politics.'
The dire figures heap significant pressure on Sir Keir Starmer, emerging as he prepared for the final Prime Minister's Questions before the Christmas recess. The poll indicates Labour's support has dwindled further since the last YouGov research in September, signalling a deepening crisis for the party in a nation it has long considered a heartland.
