Tactical Voting Strategies to Halt SNP Majority in Scottish Elections
While tactical voting may not resonate with every voter, sticking with a lifelong party allegiance could prove ineffective in preventing the Scottish National Party (SNP) from securing a majority, as numerous constituencies remain precariously balanced. The decision ultimately rests with individual voters, but a comprehensive analysis of every constituency identifies which parties stand the best chance of ousting the Nationalists. In this second installment of our tactical voting guide, we focus on North East Scotland and Mid Scotland and Fife, where Labour and the Conservatives emerge as the primary contenders against formidable SNP incumbents.
Mid Scotland and Fife: Critical Battlegrounds
In Clackmannanshire and Dunblane, SNP deputy leader Keith Brown defends a majority of 7,551, with the Conservatives in second place. However, Labour's recent general election success in Alloa and Grangemouth, coupled with polling data, suggests Suzanne Graham is the strongest pro-Union challenger, making Labour the tactical vote here.
Cowdenbeath, home to former Labour prime minister Gordon Brown, sees SNP's Annabelle Ewing stepping down after a decade. Labour's Fiona Sword faces SNP candidate David Barrett in a two-horse race, with Labour recommended as the tactical choice to reclaim the seat.
Dunfermline, represented by SNP Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville since 2016, has Labour as a comfortable second. Joe Long is the likeliest pro-Union challenger, advising a tactical vote for Labour.
Fife North East remains Liberal Democrat territory under Willie Rennie, who excels at uniting pro-Union voters. With a 7,448 majority over the SNP, the Lib Dems are the clear tactical pick here.
Kirkcaldy, held by SNP's David Torrance with a 7,831 majority, has been yellow for 15 years. Labour's Melanie Ward won the Westminster seat in 2024, boosting hopes for the Holyrood contest, making Labour the tactical vote.
Mid Fife and Glenrothes, with Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth's 10,234 majority, faces a fragmented pro-Union vote due to Reform UK's entry. Labour, second in 2021 and successful in the 2024 Westminster constituency, is the best option to block the SNP.
Perthshire North sees Tory Murdo Fraser within 4,053 votes of John Swinney in 2021. With Reform UK's candidate supporting independence, the Conservatives are the tactical vote to unite pro-Union supporters.
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire is a tight two-horse race, with Tory Liz Smith narrowly losing to SNP's Jim Fairlie by 1,948 votes. Roz McCall replaces Smith as the Conservative candidate, making them the tactical choice.
Stirling has the Tories as the SNP's closest challenger, with Stephen Kerr facing former Nationalist Alyn Smith. Despite Labour's 2024 Westminster win, Kerr is the recommended tactical vote.
North East Scotland: High-Stakes Contests
Aberdeen Central suffers from split pro-Union support between Tories and Labour, allowing SNP's Kevin Stewart to win with a 6,594 majority. Current trends suggest Labour's Jenny Laing is the closest challenger to SNP special adviser Jack Middleton, advising a tactical vote for Labour.
Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine could be a major SNP scalp, with Westminster leader Stephen Flynn standing. In 2021, the SNP narrowly held the seat, and Tory Liam Kerr has a real chance to defeat Flynn, making the Conservatives the tactical vote.
Aberdeen Donside, with Jackie Dunbar's 9,026 majority, sees Labour's Lynn Thomson recommended by Scotland in Union as the best challenger, due to an 18% swing from SNP to Labour in the 2024 general election.
Aberdeenshire East is an oil-and-gas battlefield between SNP's Gillian Martin and Tory Douglas Lumsden. With Harriet Cross's 2021 vote surge and 2024 MP election, Lumsden is the pro-UK candidate to back tactically.
Aberdeenshire West is held by Tory Alexander Burnett with a 3,390 majority over the SNP. Reform UK's controversial candidate poses a risk, but the Conservatives remain the tactical vote to retain the seat.
Angus North and Mearns is a clear SNP/Tory race, with Mairi Gougeon's 3,509 majority. New candidates Dawn Black (SNP) and Tracey Smith (Tory) compete, with the Conservatives as the tactical choice.
Angus South sees Graeme Dey's 6,117 SNP majority over the Tories, who were second in the 2024 Westminster seat. Tory candidate Angus MacMillan Douglas is the best pro-Union option.
Banffshire and Buchan Coast has a wafer-thin 772 SNP majority for Karen Adam, making it a top Tory target. James Adams is the candidate, but Reform UK support could aid the SNP, so Conservatives are the tactical vote.
Dundee City East features a 13,337 majority for Shona Robison, who is stepping down. Labour's Cheryl-Ann Cruickshank is the closest challenger to SNP's Stephen Gethins, advising a tactical vote for Labour.
Dundee City West saw Joe FitzPatrick win with 62% of the vote in 2021. Labour's stronger candidate, Michael Marra, faces SNP's Heather Anderson, making Labour the tactical choice.
Conclusion: Pragmatism Over Allegiance
As postal voting commences, voters face tough choices between pragmatism and deep-seated party loyalties. In many key battlegrounds, Labour and the Conservatives stand as the only viable rivals to the SNP, despite potential reservations about their policies. This analysis underscores the importance of tactical voting in preventing an SNP majority, with each constituency requiring careful consideration to maximize pro-Union impact.
