Keir Starmer has concluded his diplomatic mission to China and returns to the United Kingdom this weekend, having secured notable concessions from Chinese President Xi Jinping during the high-stakes visit. Despite some external political noise, the Prime Minister's office will likely view the trip as a success without major disruptions. However, the political landscape at home presents an immediate and formidable challenge that will demand Starmer's full attention upon his return.
Greater Manchester By-Election: A High-Stakes Political Gamble
All eyes are now turning to Greater Manchester, where voters in the traditionally safe Labour constituency of Gorton and Denton will head to the polls on February 26th to elect a new MP following Andrew Gwynne's resignation. The Labour Party's recent decision by its governing body to block Andy Burnham's potential Westminster comeback has created significant internal controversy and represents what many are calling a monumental political gamble.
Internal Party Concerns and Fears of Backfire
Several Labour MPs have expressed private concerns that this decision could seriously backfire on the party. "If we lose the by-election, the message is going to be that Keir Starmer sacrificed a seat to keep Andy Burnham out," one backbencher warned, adding dryly that "that won't play out well." Another MP suggested that Number 10 has already conceded the seat might be lost, stating: "No. 10 have already conceded that we'll lose the seat, they knew they were giving it to Reform or the Greens when they blocked Andy."
Despite these concerns, some within the party remain cautiously optimistic. Labour MP Karl Turner, who has been vocal in his criticism of government policies recently, revealed he had spoken with Deputy Labour Leader Lucy Powell about the campaign. "Lucy is on the ground. Lucy is realistic. Doesn't try to make it sound good if it isn't. Lucy assures me that it's good on the ground," Turner told The Mirror. He added a note of caution, however: "If we don't win this by-election the pressure on the gaffer will be intense. And that's not what we need."
Polling Experts Weigh In on Unpredictable Contest
Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice offered his analysis of the complex electoral landscape, describing the by-election as particularly difficult to predict. "Well, we're all guessing is the short answer to you," he admitted frankly. The country's leading elections expert identified four significant players in what he called a "crunch by-election": Labour, Reform UK, the Greens, and the Workers' Party.
Sir John noted there was a "big unknown" surrounding the Workers' Party due to limited available evidence. He explained that the constituency was once so safe for Labour that "you weighed the Labour vote - you didn't count it," but pointed out that Labour's vote has collapsed significantly in constituencies with substantial Muslim communities. "But now that Labour's vote has collapsed across the country as a whole, given that collapse is on the MRP (polling) evidence heavier in place in which Labour currently hold, welcome to a fascinating by-election," he remarked.
A Tight Race with Multiple Potential Outcomes
When asked whether Labour could hold the seat, Sir John responded: "Yeah they can. Of course they can. They can. But probably only just if they do. And equally can Reform win it? Yes - probably only just if they do. Can the Greens do it? Well, more of a challenge on the evidence that we've got so far, limited as it is. Can't be entirely ruled out."
He suggested the election might result in a winner with a relatively low share of the vote, quipping that predicting the outcome was like "tossing a few coins." Sir John added: "It may well be that all these efforts to polarise the electorate don't work and we do end up with a by-election in which whoever wins is winning on a pretty low share of the vote."
The Reform UK Factor and Voter Dilemma
Fellow polling expert Luke Tryl, who leads on public opinion at More in Common, described the by-election as a three-horse race between Labour, Reform UK, and the Greens, with all parties united by one common factor: Nigel Farage's influence. "Reform is dominating the agenda," Tryl observed. "The interesting thing about Reform and Nigel Farage in particular is his fans really love him and his detractors really hate him. Because it's so polarised, that comes to define the race."
Tryl outlined a scenario where either the Greens or Labour could win depending on which party voters believe is best positioned to beat Reform UK, or alternatively, where the vote splits between the two left-leaning parties, allowing Reform to secure victory. "It all depends how tactical voting plays out," he admitted.
Tactical Paralysis Among Voters
The polling expert revealed insights from recent focus groups with voters who supported Labour in 2024 but are now reconsidering their options. "We ran a focus group on Wednesday night with voters who had voted for Labour in 2024 and are still largely leaning towards parties of the left, and their big question was: Who do we vote for to stop Reform?" Tryl explained.
He described a phenomenon he calls "tactical paralysis" among these voters. "They were saying: Is it the Greens? Is it Labour? Voters have got what I call tactical paralysis. They don't know who the tactical choice is to stop Reform." This uncertainty among traditionally Labour-leaning voters adds another layer of complexity to an already unpredictable electoral contest that will test Starmer's leadership and the party's strategic decisions in the crucial weeks ahead.
