Reform UK's ambitions for significant gains in the upcoming local elections have been hampered by delays to several contests in areas where the party was expected to perform strongly. The elections, set for 1 May, will see 23 English local authorities go to the polls, with around 1,600 seats and six mayoralties up for grabs. National polls show Labour, the Conservatives, and Reform almost tied, making the contest wide open.
The Conservatives are defending the most seats, many won in 2021 during Boris Johnson's peak popularity. Of the 23 authorities, 19 are currently Conservative-controlled, one is Labour, and the rest have no overall control. Labour hopes to capitalise on its narrow national lead, but governing parties often struggle in local elections, especially amid economic challenges.
Reform, led by Nigel Farage, had targeted areas such as Doncaster and Durham, but delays to elections in some of those regions have dented their prospects. The party has a less effective ground campaign than its rivals, though it has performed well in some byelections without strong local organisation. In Doncaster, Farage expressed hope of winning the mayoralty and council seats, but the area has historically been a Labour stronghold.
The Liberal Democrats aim to overtake the Conservatives as the second largest party in local government, focusing on the NHS, social care, and sewage issues. They are expected to perform well in the South West and South, particularly in Devon and Cornwall, where they exceeded expectations in the general election. The Greens and independent parties also hope to capitalise on voter dissatisfaction with Labour.
Key battlegrounds include Derbyshire and Lancashire, where Labour seeks to oust Conservative majorities. Reform could split the Conservative vote, aiding Labour. In Durham, a council split among Labour, independents, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Reform makes the outcome uncertain. A byelection in Runcorn and Helsby, triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Mike Amesbury after an assault conviction, is also closely watched, with Reform investing resources there.
