One Nation Overtakes Liberals in South Australian Political Shakeup
A dramatic shift is unfolding in South Australian politics, with One Nation poised to reshape the electoral landscape just days before the state goes to the polls. According to a new YouGov poll conducted for The Advertiser, One Nation has surged to 22 per cent of the primary vote, overtaking the Liberal Party which sits at 19 per cent. This development positions One Nation as the state's second-most popular party, sending shockwaves through the political establishment.
Labor Maintains Commanding Lead Amid Liberal Collapse
Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas remains on course for a commanding victory, holding firm at 38 per cent of the primary vote. His party enjoys a landslide 59–41 two-party-preferred lead, indicating a strong mandate for another term. However, the real story lies in the Liberal Party's precipitous decline, with alarm bells ringing at both state and federal levels.
Liberal MPs are warning of potential wipeout in the lower house as their vote collapses across key electorates. The party has already been shut out of Adelaide following the 2025 federal election, holding no seats in the state's capital. Former strongholds like Sturt, Boothby, and Mayo—once represented by party heavyweights including Christopher Pyne and Alexander Downer—have been lost, further threatening their state prospects.
One Nation's Momentum and Regional Influence
One Nation's remarkable surge has been fuelled in part by former Liberal senator Cory Bernardi, who is now running for the Legislative Council. Bernardi has relentlessly criticised both major parties as a 'uni-party' and urged voters to break with political tradition. His advocacy appears to be resonating, particularly in regional areas where One Nation's support is strongest.
Some within the Liberal Party cling to hope that One Nation's influence will be confined to regional districts and that Adelaide will hold the line against the tide. Others point to the 2018 state election as a cautionary tale, where Nick Xenophon's SA Best polled strongly but failed to win a single lower house seat.
Confrontation and Collaboration at the Leaders' Debate
The political drama escalated at Wednesday's Sky News Leader's Debate, where One Nation leader Pauline Hanson gatecrashed the event alongside Cory Bernardi. Hanson confronted Premier Malinauskas as he entered the building, stating, 'I hope that, if Cory wins this seat and we gain some others, we'll work with Labor on good policy.'
Malinauskas responded diplomatically, saying, 'I'm always happy to work with those willing to work with us. We might have violently different views on some issues.' He then wished Hanson 'safe travels back to Queensland', a pointed dig at her outsider status in South Australian politics.
Broader National Trend Reshaping Australian Politics
Beyond South Australia, state polling in Victoria and New South Wales indicates that One Nation's surge is part of a broader national trend reshaping Australian politics. A Roy Morgan SMS poll in Victoria earlier this year showed One Nation with a staggering 26.5 per cent primary vote, outpacing both Labor and the Coalition and pointing to the possibility of a hung parliament at the next state election.
In New South Wales, a February Roy Morgan poll found One Nation commanding 30 per cent of the primary vote, pushing Labor to 25 per cent and the Coalition to just 19 per cent, with a year remaining until the state goes to the polls. These figures suggest a significant realignment of voter loyalties across the country.
As South Australians prepare to cast their ballots, the political landscape appears more volatile than ever. With One Nation's dramatic rise and the Liberal Party's struggle for relevance, the election outcome could signal a lasting transformation in state and national politics.
