New Zealand PM Luxon's Poll Ratings Decline Amid Economic Discontent
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has seen a significant drop in his personal approval ratings, according to recent polling data, as public dissatisfaction with his government's economic management grows in the lead-up to the November general election. The RNZ-Reid Research poll, released on Monday, reveals that Luxon's preferred prime minister rating has fallen to 17.3%, marking his lowest result in major polls since assuming leadership in 2023.
Polling Details and Political Landscape
The survey, conducted in mid-March amidst escalating Middle East tensions and a global energy crisis, shows support for Luxon's National party declining to 30.8%, placing it nearly five points behind the main opposition Labour party, which stands at 35.6%. If an election were held today, this would likely result in a hung parliament, with the left bloc—comprising Labour, the Greens at 10.1%, and Te Pāti Māori at 3.2%—and the right bloc—including National, Act at 7%, and New Zealand First at 10.6%—facing a deadlock.
Luxon's net favourability has also worsened, dropping from -14 in January to -20.6, his poorest performance in the Reid Research series since becoming National's leader in 2021. Meanwhile, half of respondents believe New Zealand is heading in the wrong direction, a four-point increase since January, compared to only 32.3% who feel the country is on the right track.
Economic Challenges and Leadership Scrutiny
The coalition government, which campaigned on promises to revitalise New Zealand's economy after the Covid-19 pandemic, has introduced policies such as relaxed immigration settings to attract foreign investment and reduced public spending. However, recovery has been sluggish, with the economy growing just 0.2% in the December quarter, below expectations. The ongoing war in the Middle East further threatens to disrupt progress.
Political commentator Ben Thomas noted that the economy and global conditions are the primary factors dragging down the coalition's popularity. "This is the first long-term cost-of-living crisis we've had for a long time... One that falls much more evenly over the electorate, so it's going to have a wider dispersion in negatively impacting voter sentiment," he said. Thomas also highlighted Luxon's lack of charisma compared to predecessors like John Key and Jacinda Ardern, suggesting his fortunes are closely tied to daily economic pressures felt by voters.
Historical Context and Future Implications
Polls throughout 2025 have been unfavourable towards Luxon and the coalition, an unusual trend for a first-term government in New Zealand. Should the November election reflect these polls, it would mark the first time a first-term government has failed to secure a second term since the introduction of the mixed-member proportional parliamentary system in 1993. A second Taxpayers' Union Curia poll in March showed National support at just 28.4%, sparking questions about Luxon's leadership and forcing him to address speculation about stepping down.
In response to the polling, Luxon told RNZ, "People don't talk about polls. Right now, I'm very much focused on navigating fuel supply challenges and minimising the impacts on Kiwis." Despite this focus, the data indicates a challenging road ahead for the prime minister as he seeks to regain voter confidence in a fragile economic climate.
