US President Donald Trump has left himself with four options in Iran, each of which would end in humiliating defeat, according to defence analysts. The predicament stems from the impossibility of finding an off-ramp from the current crisis that does not result in lasting humiliation for the United States.
The JCPOA Benchmark
The measure of any outcome will be compared to Barack Obama's 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which restricted Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. Under that deal, there was no closure of the Strait of Hormuz and no Iranian control of the waterway. Simply reaching that point would be an achievement; anything less constitutes a defeat.
Trump's handling of negotiations has revealed incompetence and mendacity. On Friday he claimed the Iran peace deal was 'largely negotiated' and would be announced 'soon,' only to stress over the weekend that negotiators should 'not rush into' a deal. These contradictory statements have unsettled markets, while the war has already cost the US hundreds of billions of dollars.
The Four Options
- Invade Iran – Impossible with a few thousand Marines and without NATO-wide consensus. This would spark a decades-long insurgency, dragging the region into war and terrorism, potentially uniting Shia and Sunni extremists against the West.
- Partial special forces incursion – A raid to seize buried enriched uranium would be hyper-risky, requiring specialist excavation and a large force protection ring. It could escalate into a full-scale ground war without resolving the Strait of Hormuz issue.
- Release billions in sanctions relief – This would park the nuclear issue and may persuade Tehran to open the Strait, but represents an unspinnable defeat for Trump.
- Walk away – Leaving the conflict to Israel and Western allies would be the biggest defeat, leaving the nuclear issue unresolved and the Strait closed.
In summary, no option offers a way out without humiliation. Trump is desperately trying to out-bluff an unbluffable adversary, but the abyss of defeat is unavoidable.
