Reform UK Campaigner Says Makerfield By-Election Still on a Knife Edge
As the final days of the Makerfield by-election campaign tick down, Nick Hogan is spending his time knocking on doors rather than studying opinion polls. Hogan, head of Reform UK's Save Our Pubs campaign, has become a familiar face on the campaign trail for party candidate Robert Kenyon, and after weeks spent speaking to voters across the constituency, he believes the result still remains on a knife edge.
"Canvassing has been very interesting. I don't know what the results are going to be, but I have my fingers crossed for Rob Kenyon," he told the Manchester Evening News. "It's too close to tell at this moment."
Uncertainty Within Reform's Campaign
That uncertainty appears to be shared inside Reform's campaign operation. Despite the party's strong performance in May's local elections, when Reform swept council seats across the area, including in Wigan, campaign insiders insist nobody is taking victory for granted in a by-election that has attracted national attention thanks to Andy Burnham's attempt to return to Westminster.
So far, the polls have given Andy Burnham a three, ten and five point lead, all from established pollsters. Data seen by The Independent newspaper suggests Burnham is set to win by five points. Reform sources privately acknowledge that the emergence of Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain party has complicated the electoral picture.
"If Restore weren't standing we would feel more comfortable," one campaign source said. "The undecideds are going to swing it. No one is taking this election for granted."
Restore Britain's Impact
Earlier this month, the UK's leading pollster Professor Sir John Curtice said that polls suggest Restore Britain could "make the difference between Reform winning or not winning". A new polling firm, Convergent, has placed Restore at five percent with Reform at 37 percent, while Opinium put them at seven percent and 41 percent respectively.
Many Restore supporters, according to Reform insiders, remain relatively disengaged from politics and can be persuaded that Nigel Farage's party is better placed to defeat Labour. "One in every two Restore doors we've knocked on, as soon as we told them we stand on a similar policy platform but we've got a better chance of winning, they fold," a campaigner said.
Bitter Rivalry Between Farage and Lowe
It's no secret that there is a bitter rivalry between Farage and Lowe, which escalated in 2025 when Lowe, a former Reform MP for Great Yarmouth, was suspended from the party after criticising Farage's leadership. Lowe was subsequently accused of workplace bullying and threats of violence, which Lowe has strongly denied.
That rivalry, mostly confined to social media, has now moved offline and into the real world. A video clip from the weekend shows Restore campaigners approaching Reform's turquoise campaign bus while its driver was taking a break. A Union Jack-painted Land Rover bearing the slogan "Fly the Flag" is positioned in front of the bus, blocking its path. "Get this, we've got Restore having it out with Reform here," says the man filming. A man then appears in the shot and says to the camera: "Go Restore mate. We're Restore Britain".
Some Reform supporters have described the incidents as evidence of a deteriorating atmosphere on the campaign trail and claim Restore candidates have tried intimidating the party outside its Makerfield HQ. One Reform source described Restore as "100 percent a spite project".
Calls for Civility
Hogan said he had heard reports of confrontations involving activists, although he stressed political disagreements should remain civil. "Back in the day you'd all go for a pint after campaigning – Lib Dems, Labour, Conservatives. Just because you disagree doesn't mean you have to dislike each other," he said. "It's a crying shame. We should be grown up about it."
Reflecting on his years of political campaigning, he added: "2019 was the first time I felt the change. That year was the first death threat I received on the doorstep. There's no need for any candidate or political party to be nasty. It's blighted our politics." Blaming it on social media, he said "people are just talking to their echo chambers". He harked back to Reform's Save Our Pubs campaign, adding: "That's why it's vital we keep our pubs. It's where you go to talk to each other in a good humoured way."
Kenyon's Message to Restore Voters
In an interview with the Telegraph this week, Kenyon told Restore voters to stop playing "silly games" and vote for him, saying only Reform could stop a Burnham victory. While Reform activists view Restore as a potential threat, they insist Andy Burnham remains the dominant topic on the doorstep.
The Greater Manchester Mayor's decision to contest the seat has transformed the by-election into a contest with implications far beyond Makerfield, with political observers viewing it as a potential stepping stone back to Westminster and, eventually, a Labour leadership bid. Reform campaigners acknowledge Burnham retains personal popularity, but insist voters have questioned what his candidacy would mean for the constituency. "People have said to us: 'What's Andy Burnham ever done for us?'"
Local Candidate vs. Establishment Politician
The party's message has focused heavily on presenting Kenyon, a self-employed plumber and newly elected Wigan councillor, as a local alternative to what it describes as an establishment politician. Hogan believes that argument is resonating. "He's a genuine guy, he's a local lad," he said. "He's not a polished politician and he's not had that media training like the others. He genuinely cares about his home town and home constituency. That chimes with his friends and neighbours. I think he will be a brilliant MP."
He added: "When we speak to voters they feel like they're being used as a political experiment for Andy Burnham's ambitions. Let's call it for what it is. Andy Burnham is only there because he wants to be Prime Minister. He's not interested in the issues and problems of Makerfield."
Controversy Over Kenyon's Past Posts
However, since Reform announced his candidacy, Kenyon has found himself at the centre of a media storm over historic online posts, which were unearthed by campaign group Hope Not Hate. It found that Kenyon had made misogynistic posts and remarks about Covid conspiracy theories. In one post, in 2021, Coun Kenyon responded to an X user who wrote a degrading sexual message about broadcaster Carol Vorderman. After another user criticised the remark, Mr Kenyon is said to have responded: "He's only saying what we're all thinking" with a thumbs up and laughing emoji. Vorderman has described Mr Kenyon as a 'little coward' and sent a letter to 6,000 female voters across the constituency, urging them not to vote Reform.
Kenyon has insisted that these views don't reflect the way he thinks now and denies that he is sexist. The controversy was further amplified during last week's Manchester Evening News hustings, when audience members laughed after Kenyon said Reform would protect women's rights.
Reform Sticks by Kenyon
Nevertheless, party figures remain adamant they selected the right candidate. "His story is so strong," a Reform source told the MEN. "It was difficult to find someone with as strong a background. The tweets weren't ideal… but there was nothing that we thought would trump who Rob is as a person. We never presented him as perfect or polished. He's just a normal working lad, he's said himself that he's rough around the edges."
During his appearance on the BBC's Question Time in Makerfield, Kenyon was confronted by a female audience member over his past comments. She said: "I'd rather have a career politician than a plumber who's a sexist," sparking loud applause. The MEN's own interviews in the constituency reveal that the comments have prompted concerns from women. A Reform source admitted that a few voters were bringing up Kenyon's social media comments on the doorsteps, but insisted that it was "not enough to lose us the election".
Final Stretch
As polling day approaches, Reform activists insist they remain focused on the same task that has dominated the campaign from the start – persuading undecided voters. With Labour and Reform separated by only a handful of points in some surveys, and Restore Britain's support potentially large enough to influence the outcome, nobody inside the campaign appears willing to predict the result. For now, even some of Reform's most committed supporters are settling for a simpler assessment. "It's too close to tell," Hogan said.
