Panic is spreading in Majorca as new projections indicate that hundreds of thousands of new residents, predominantly not from Spain, will settle in the Balearic Islands within the next two decades. According to the National Statistics Institute (INE), the population of the archipelago is set to rise from the current 1.26 million to 1.46 million by 2041. However, this increase is expected to come almost entirely from foreign nationals, with the foreign population forecast to climb from 369,480 to 575,000, representing 39% of the total population. This would be the highest percentage in Spain, surpassing regions like Catalonia and Valencia, both projected at 37%.
Population Shift and Demographics
The Balearics' population growth is not driven by Spanish nationals. Only 20,000 Spaniards are expected to move to the islands, while around 25,000 residents are projected to leave for other parts of Spain. Additionally, deaths are expected to exceed births, with 11,000 deaths and 10,000 births annually. The INE estimates that between 28,000 and 40,000 foreign citizens will arrive each year, offset by emigration of 21,000 to 29,000.
Impact on Majorca
Over three-quarters of the Balearics' population resides in Majorca alone, currently at just under 978,500. The projected rise would give the Balearics a larger population than Aragon, a region nearly ten times its size. To put this into perspective, the entire archipelago covers roughly 1,950 square miles, similar to North Yorkshire, which is home to approximately 635,200 people.
Overpopulation Concerns
Overpopulation in the Balearics has become increasingly problematic, prompting calls for urgent action. Last October, Balearic President Marga Prohens stated that the islands "cannot assume unlimited population growth" and called for a debate on demographic challenges. The archipelago recorded over 19 million tourists last year, surpassing 2024's total of 18.7 million, accounting for one in five international visitors to Spain. The UK and Germany remain the top source markets.
