Labour's Gorton and Denton By-Election Crisis Intensifies Amid Burnham Snub
The political landscape in Greater Manchester has been thrown into turmoil as Labour faces the prospect of a historic defeat in the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election. Scheduled for 26 February 2026, this contest has become a critical test for Sir Keir Starmer's leadership following the party's controversial decision to block Andy Burnham from standing as their candidate.
Internal Rebellion and Leadership Tensions
Labour's National Executive Committee (NEC) officers group, including Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, voted decisively against allowing the Mayor of Greater Manchester to contest the Westminster seat. The Prime Minister defended the decision by stating that a mayoral election would "divert our resources away" from crucial local elections, while acknowledging Burnham's successful tenure as Manchester mayor.
This move has sparked significant internal rebellion, with approximately 50 Labour MPs writing to Sir Keir urging the full NEC to reconsider. The dissenting MPs argue that denying local members a choice reinforces perceptions of politics as "a remote stitch-up from a small group of people at the very top in London." They further warned that the decision represents "a real gift to Nigel Farage" and increases the likelihood of losing the seat to Reform UK.
Polling Shows Reform UK Leading
Recent polling data paints a concerning picture for Labour in what has traditionally been one of their safest northern strongholds. According to Britain Predicts, Reform UK currently commands 32% support in Gorton and Denton, with Labour trailing at 26% and the Green Party at 22%. This represents a dramatic shift from the 2024 general election results, where Labour maintained a substantial 13,413 majority with 50.8% of the vote.
Perhaps most revealing is polling that suggests Labour would be level with Reform UK at 31% if Andy Burnham were the candidate. This data highlights how the NEC's decision may have significantly damaged Labour's prospects in a constituency they have held in various forms since 1979.
Historical Context and Electoral Trends
The Gorton and Denton seat, previously organised as Denton and Reddish from 1983 until its 2024 reorganisation, has been represented by only two Labour MPs since its creation. Andrew Bennett held the seat from 1983 until 2005, when Andrew Gwynne took over until his recent departure.
However, concerning trends have emerged for Labour in recent elections. Their majority decreased substantially from 22,175 in 2019 to 13,413 in 2024, while Reform UK increased their vote share by 9.2 percentage points to 14.1%. The Green Party also made significant gains, rising 10.7 points to 13.2%. Turnout dropped dramatically from 61.7% to 46.8%, indicating potential voter disengagement that could further complicate Labour's position.
Reform UK's Challenge and Candidate Strategy
Reform UK has capitalised on Labour's internal difficulties by selecting right-wing activist Matt Goodwin as their candidate. Speaking at a constituency press conference, Goodwin framed the by-election as "a referendum on Keir Starmer" and an opportunity for local voters to "make political history."
The party's strategy appears focused on positioning themselves as the authentic voice of northern voters disillusioned with both major parties. With Nigel Farage's party leading in current polling, they stand poised to achieve what would be a remarkable victory in a traditionally Labour-dominated area.
Broader Implications for Labour's Future
This by-election has exposed significant fault lines within the Labour Party regarding candidate selection processes and leadership authority. Andy Burnham, who served as a Labour MP from 2001 to 2017 before becoming Manchester mayor, is widely viewed as a potential future party leader. His exclusion from this contest raises questions about internal democracy and the party's direction under Sir Keir Starmer.
The outcome on 26 February will have substantial implications beyond this single constituency. A Labour defeat would represent their first loss in this area for over four decades and could trigger further internal challenges to the current leadership. Conversely, a narrow victory might still highlight significant vulnerabilities in what should be safe Labour territory.
As campaigning intensifies, all eyes remain on Greater Manchester to see whether Labour can overcome internal divisions and polling deficits to retain this crucial seat, or whether Reform UK will achieve their breakthrough victory in northern England.
