Labour's By-Election Campaign Stumbles in Traditional Safe Seat
Barely eighteen months after securing a landslide victory in the general election, the Labour Party finds itself in an unexpectedly precarious position as it fights to retain the Gorton and Denton constituency. This traditional safe seat, once considered a Labour stronghold, is now the scene of a stuttering campaign that raises serious questions about the government's direction and Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership.
Internal Dissent and Campaign Reluctance
Despite successfully blocking Andy Burnham from standing as the Labour candidate, the party is reportedly struggling to persuade its own disaffected MPs to campaign actively in the constituency. This reluctance stems from multiple factors including miserable poll ratings, ongoing speculation about Starmer's leadership, and a widespread feeling in northern regions that the London-based party hierarchy isn't listening to local concerns.
Approximately fifty Labour MPs signed a letter protesting Burnham's treatment during his aborted bid to enter Parliament, revealing deep fractures within the party. One Labour MP admitted: "I will go once to say I have done it but I am not filled with enthusiasm to help out in a contest we are going to lose." Another added bluntly: "What's the point? There's not exactly a lot of enthusiasm to knock doors just to save Starmer."
Weakened Party Discipline and Leadership Authority
Party discipline has severely weakened under the pressures of government, a situation that would have been inconceivable before the general election. A succession of policy U-turns, scandals, and failed relaunches has created uncertainty about what Labour actually stands for, both within the party and among voters.
The botched welfare reforms of last summer, which culminated in Labour MPs rejecting their own government's proposals, marked a significant turning point. This rebellion severely undermined the leadership's authority despite Labour commanding a parliamentary majority of more than 140 seats.
The Candidates and Electoral Challenges
The Labour candidate will be a local councillor, as is typical in by-elections where local connections are highly valued. The shortlist includes Eamonn O'Brien, leader of Bury Council since 2021, and Angeliki Stogia, a Manchester city councillor since 2012 who previously stood as candidate for Chester South & Eddisbury in 2024.
Labour faces formidable challenges from both the Green Party and Reform UK, with the additional possibility of a dramatic intervention by George Galloway on behalf of the Workers Party. This contest promises to be one of the liveliest, and potentially most vicious, electoral battles in recent memory.
Andy Burnham's Unhelpful Commentary
Andy Burnham has offered commentary that many consider unhelpful to the Labour campaign. He stated: "What I was offering the party, I think, was an alternative path to the one that the party is now on... I believed I was probably in a better position than anybody to fight back against that different type of politics." This public positioning reinforces the perception of division within Labour ranks.
The Electoral Landscape and Potential Outcomes
Despite Labour having won more than half the votes in this constituency at the last general election, the party now faces an uphill struggle against national unpopularity, the Burnham incident fallout, and the Greens' claim that the real contest is between themselves and Reform UK.
Matthew Goodwin, Nigel Farage's candidate for Reform UK, has made controversial statements about Britishness that will either alienate or galvanise certain voter segments. Meanwhile, the Green Party's Hannah Spencer, a plumber with solid working-class credentials, will likely face attacks regarding her work with refugees.
If George Galloway enters the race, his formidable campaigning skills could potentially sweep him to victory, mirroring his success in the Rochdale by-election two years ago. The candidate who emerges as the clear anti-Farage option stands a decent chance of winning, provided their position is sufficiently clear to enable effective tactical voting. Both Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates are expected to be squeezed into electoral irrelevance.
Implications for Keir Starmer's Leadership
It's difficult to imagine circumstances worsening significantly for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, but the by-election result will undoubtedly confirm Labour's current predicament. The scale of any potential loss will influence discussions about Starmer's future, with Andy Burnham needing to campaign vigorously to avoid being blamed for a poor result.
Should Reform UK or the Green Party stumble unexpectedly, and Labour performs better than anticipated, the dynamics surrounding Starmer's leadership could shift. However, regardless of the outcome, Andy Burnham appears positioned to emerge as the biggest winner from this political fiasco, potentially strengthening his standing within the party at a time of leadership uncertainty.
The polling date of 26 February leaves time for further developments in what has become a microcosm of Labour's broader challenges in maintaining unity and direction while in government.
