Labour MPs are preparing for a leadership battle to succeed Sir Keir Starmer, who faces potentially catastrophic local and devolved election results next week. The contest is shaping up as a two-horse race between Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting, with Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, seen as unable to return to Westminster in time to launch a challenge.
Burnham's Return Unlikely
Andy Burnham remains the most popular option among party members, but he would need to secure a seat in Parliament to run for leader. His allies have called for any leadership race to be postponed until he can do so, but Labour MPs have warned that the party cannot wait. One MP stated: "We cannot wait for Andy. He might be the most unifying candidate, but he's not here and there seems to be no obvious path for him to come soon." Only the left-wing Socialist Campaign Group of MPs is determined to hold on for him, but they lack the numbers to force a delay.
Rayner and Streeting Have the Numbers
The Independent understands that both Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting have secured enough MP nominations to launch leadership bids. Pressure is expected to mount after next week's elections, which are predicted to be disastrous for Labour. Canvassing in London boroughs like Barking and Dagenham, and postal box sampling in Birmingham, suggest results could be "even worse than expected." Polling expert Lord Robert Hayward predicted Labour would lose over 1,800 seats, and one MP said: "It will be curtains for the PM."
Rayner's Tax Investigation
Angela Rayner is still awaiting a judgment from an HMRC investigation into her tax affairs. She is believed to have greater support among the Labour membership than Wes Streeting, who is on the right wing of the party. An "anybody but Ange" briefing operation has already started to boost Streeting and prevent a left-wing takeover. A supporter of Rayner said: "She definitely has the numbers to launch a challenge. Not to have a coup." Leadership candidates need 83 MP nominations. While a source close to Rayner pushed back on the idea of an active leadership bid, they did not deny she may be forced to decide after the elections. Sir Keir has also offered her a return to the cabinet to see off any threat.
Other Candidates Fade
Support for other potential candidates has waned. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband's bid as a compromise candidate was met with backlash. One MP noted: "We cannot relive his leadership again." Another source suggested Miliband is more realistic as a future chancellor. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has supporters, including former PM Sir Tony Blair, but is considered "far too right wing" and has alienated left-wing MPs with her hardline immigration stance, meaning she "will not get off the starting blocks."
Widespread Acknowledgment of Need for Change
Regardless of who succeeds Sir Keir, there is growing acknowledgment among Labour MPs that a leadership change will likely be required soon after the local elections. The Greens and Reform UK are set to make major gains from Labour across England, and a minister admitted: "We have already written Wales off." Only in Scotland are there hopes of "small gains" due to the SNP's unpopularity after 19 years in power. After the Peter Mandelson scandal and the loss of political capital in blocking an inquiry into him, several MPs believe Sir Keir is "finished." Ministers also question whether he has the political strength to carry out a major reshuffle planned after the elections. One said: "He may want to get rid of [chancellor] Rachel [Reeves] but is he even in a position to do that? If he goes ahead with sacking Wes [Streeting] he will trigger an immediate leadership election." Another suggested he may be forced to reshuffle junior ministers and remove "non-entities like [tech secretary] Liz Kendall."
Starmer's Allies Hope for Survival
Sir Keir's allies believe he could still cling on, largely due to the absence of a main rival. One said: "It is very difficult to replace a leader and a contest between Angela and Wes will split the party. It would be a disaster." Another added: "The PM will not give up easily."
