France has commenced voting in the first round of municipal elections, a critical test of the political climate preceding next year's presidential election. Ballots are being cast across 35,000 villages, towns, and cities, with outcomes closely monitored for signals about party strategies and alliances in the nation's increasingly fragmented political landscape.
Local Focus with National Implications
While these elections primarily address local issues such as security, housing, and refuse collection, they differ significantly from national polls. The two-round vote, held on consecutive Sundays, will be scrutinised for what it reveals about party dynamics before the 2027 presidential race. Emmanuel Macron's two terms conclude next year, adding uncertainty to the presidential candidacy lineup in the EU's second-largest economy.
Far-Right Ambitions and Challenges
The far-right anti-immigration National Rally (RN) is viewed as a key contender in the presidential race but has historically struggled at the local level, losing councillors in the 2020 municipal elections. Voter turnout at midday on Sunday stood at 19.37%, slightly higher than the same point in 2020, when the Covid pandemic deterred many voters.
The RN aims to retain control of Perpignan, the largest city it governs, with a population of 121,000 near the Spanish border. It also targets victories in cities like Toulon on the south coast and Nîmes in the south-east. A significant RN win in a major city would bolster claims of building momentum. The party is the main opposition challenger in Marseille, France's second-largest city, currently run by a leftwing coalition since 2020.
Key Battlegrounds and Alliances
In Nice, France's fifth-largest city, Éric Ciotti—who left the traditional right's Les Républicains (LR) to ally with the RN in 2024—hopes to unseat his rival, Christian Estrosi. RN performance in some cities may hinge on whether leftwing parties form alliances to block the far right between rounds. Historically, major French cities have been governed by centre-left groupings or Les Républicains, with Green-led coalitions gaining ground in 2020, including Lyon, though they now face pressure to maintain their gains.
The radical leftwing party La France Insoumise (LFI), led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, seeks to establish a local foothold before the presidential race, targeting more councillors in the greater Paris area and mayoral posts in towns like Roubaix in the north. Observers are closely watching any alliances formed between rounds to counter rival groups, particularly deals that might bridge the traditional right and far right or leftwing coalitions involving Socialists and LFI to prevent RN gains, such as in Marseille.
High-Profile Races and Candidates
A key focus is the Paris mayoral race, where rightwing candidate Rachida Dati, a former culture minister under Macron and justice minister under Nicolas Sarkozy, aims to end the left's 25-year hold on the city. Dati, the first woman of North African and Muslim heritage to hold a major French government post, has redefined political celebrity in France. However, she faces a trial in September for alleged corruption and abuse of power related to lobbying for the Renault-Nissan group during her time in the European parliament, charges she denies.
Emmanuel Grégoire, a deputy mayor and Paris Socialist MP, leads a leftwing coalition in a tight race with five candidates potentially advancing to the final round. Another closely watched contest is in Le Havre, where former prime minister Édouard Philippe has tied his presidential ambitions for 2027 to winning the city he has governed since 2014, suggesting failure could jeopardise his candidacy.
Voter Sentiment and Independent Candidates
Reflecting voter exasperation with politics and parliamentary deadlock, many mayoral candidates have distanced themselves from political parties. A substantial number of mayors, especially in villages, are running as independents, highlighting a trend of localised political engagement.
François Kraus, head of political studies at the IFOP polling institute, noted that while the municipal vote should not be seen as a "primary for the presidential election," it will reveal key trends and dynamics. "These municipal elections will no doubt provide a useful barometer of the political climate," he said, underscoring their significance in shaping France's future political trajectory.
