Peter Dutton has achieved the dubious honour of becoming the least popular major party leader in modern Australian political history, according to the latest Australian Electoral Study released on Wednesday.
Historic Unpopularity and Economic Policy Collapse
The comprehensive study, conducted by researchers at the Australian National University and Griffith University after every federal election since 1987, found the former opposition leader's unpopularity broke several records. Professor Ian McAllister, co-author of the study, revealed that voters identified inspiration and compassion as the leadership qualities Dutton most conspicuously lacked.
In a devastating assessment, only 8% of voters believed Dutton won the leaders' debates against Anthony Albanese - the lowest figure ever recorded in the study's history. This contributed to Dutton losing his seat of Dickson and Labor achieving its biggest two-party preferred vote result in 50 years, securing 94 seats in the House of Representatives.
Tax Policy Reversal Proves Costly
The research identified Dutton's decision to oppose Labor's tax cuts as a critical misstep that saw the Coalition squander its nearly 40-year advantage on economic management. Voters overwhelmingly backed Labor as the party best placed to manage the economy, giving them a 4 percentage point lead over the Coalition on this crucial issue.
The $17 billion legislated tax cuts, passed in March, will benefit taxpayers by $5 weekly from next year, increasing to $10 from 2027. Dutton had dismissed the plan as a cruel hoax and instead promised a one-off $1,200 tax cut to middle-income earners in 2026 if elected.
Household cost-of-living pressures combined with the Coalition's pledge to wind back the tax cuts significantly contributed to their electoral defeat, the study concluded.
Gender Gap and Political Volatility
The results exposed deepening challenges for the opposition, with the Coalition winning its lowest share of votes from women on record. Nearly 10% fewer women than men voted for the Coalition, while Labor attracted 5% more female voters than male.
Co-author Sarah Cameron from Griffith University noted the gender gap in voting for Labor is about half the size of the Coalition's substantial disadvantage among female voters.
The study also revealed a more volatile electorate, with 25% of voters stating they don't feel close to any Australian political party in 2025. The proportion of voters who always vote the same way reached its lowest ever level at 34%, indicating weakening traditional party allegiances.
In international relations, trust that the United States would come to Australia's defence under President Donald Trump fell to 55%, down significantly from 73% in 2022.
Earlier data from the same study showed younger voters abandoned the Coalition over climate change policy, with the Liberal and National parties receiving just 10% of first-preference votes from people who identified climate change or the environment as their top issue.
