A devastating new academic survey has revealed that Peter Dutton entered the federal election as the least popular political leader Australia has seen in at least four decades. The comprehensive study, conducted by the Australian National University and Griffith University, found his public standing was even lower than that of Scott Morrison during the Coalition's unsuccessful 2022 campaign.
Record-Breaking Unpopularity
According to Professor Ian McAllister from ANU, a co-author of the latest Australian Election Study, Dutton's unpopularity broke all previous records since the survey began. 'Dutton was the least popular major party leader the AES has ever polled,' Professor McAllister stated. The research identified that voters found him most lacking in the crucial leadership qualities of 'inspiration' and 'compassion'.
His performance during the leaders' debates also failed to resonate with the electorate. A mere eight per cent of voters believed he outperformed Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, marking the lowest debate performance rating ever recorded.
Economic Trust and Tax Cuts
The election on May 3 delivered a seismic shift in Australian politics. For the first time on record, voters trusted the Labor Party over the Coalition to manage the economy, ending a four-decade-long lead the conservatives had held. Analysts linked this dramatic change to Dutton's opposition to Labor's legislated tax cuts for low and middle-income earners.
Instead of supporting the passed legislation, Dutton campaigned for a one-off tax cut and a temporary halving of the fuel excise. Critics and analysts warned that these short-term cost-of-living promises, perceived by some as 'bribes', eroded the Coalition's long-standing reputation for fiscal discipline.
This loss of economic confidence was a key factor in Albanese leading Labor to its largest victory since World War II, while the Liberal Party posted its worst results since its founding.
A Personal and Political Defeat
The defeat for Dutton was profoundly personal. After nearly a quarter of a century representing the Queensland seat of Dickson, he lost his own seat at the election. The study linked the landslide result to widespread cost-of-living pressures and the Coalition's pledge to unwind the tax cuts.
The survey also uncovered significant and widening demographic shifts in voting patterns. The Coalition recorded its lowest-ever support among women, with nearly ten per cent fewer women than men voting for them.
Co-author Sarah Cameron from Griffith University noted, 'The gender gap that has emerged over the past decade was becoming entrenched. The Coalition attracted the lowest share of votes from women on record.' Conversely, Labor and the Greens benefited from stronger support from female voters.
Furthermore, the Australian electorate is becoming more volatile. A record 25 per cent of voters feel no attachment to any political party, and only 34 per cent always vote the same way, the lowest level ever recorded.
In a finding with potential international implications, confidence that the US would defend Australia under a potential Donald Trump presidency fell sharply to 55 per cent, down from 73 per cent in 2022.
