A political earthquake is brewing in the American South, as a new poll indicates Democrats have a legitimate chance of flipping a deep-red congressional district in Tennessee.
A Stunningly Close Race
The survey, conducted by Emerson College and The Hill for the upcoming special election in Tennessee's 7th district, shows Republican candidate Matt Van Epps holding a razor-thin lead. Van Epps is on 48 percent, a mere two points ahead of Democratic state legislator Aftyn Behn, who commands the support of 46 percent of voters.
Spencer Kimball, an executive at Emerson College, emphasised the critical factor of voter turnout. "The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home," he stated.
This tight margin is particularly shocking given the district's recent political history. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried this very district by a commanding 22 points.
National Implications and Republican Panic
The potential consequences of a Democratic victory are profound for the balance of power in Washington. If the seat flips, the number of Republicans in the House of Representatives would be reduced to just 218—the exact number required to hold a majority.
This precarious situation is set to worsen for the GOP. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene is scheduled to exit the House on 5 January, which would temporarily lower the Republican count to 217. Furthermore, Democrats are anticipated to pick up an additional seat in Texas's 18th district during a January special election and are expected to hold New Jersey's 11th district in a separate April contest.
This has triggered alarm bells among Republicans, who are now pouring significant funds into the Nashville-area district to prevent it from turning blue.
Trump's Waning Influence and Campaign Cash
In a rare post on X, Donald Trump offered an enthusiastic endorsement for Van Epps, urging his supporters to turn out. "I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District... to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps," he wrote.
However, the same Emerson College poll reveals a stark reversal in Trump's own standing within the district. Forty-nine percent of voters now disapprove of the former president, while only 47 percent approve. Kimball noted, "The decline is driven by independents, among whom 59% disapprove and just 34% approve."
The financial investment reflects the high stakes. According to AdImpact, which tracks campaign spending, the Democratic House Majority PAC has reserved $515,000 in advertising this week, with Behn's campaign adding another $214,000. In contrast, the pro-Trump super PAC, MAGA Inc., has reserved a comparatively modest $40,000 in ads.
Vice President Kamala Harris has also entered the fray, recently visiting Fisk University in Tennessee to rally volunteers. Meanwhile, Republicans have attempted to portray Behn as out of touch, circulating comments from an old podcast where she expressed disdain for Nashville's iconic attractions, including country music and bachelorette parties. Behn has since defended her love for the city in a video posted on X.
With the special election set for Tuesday, all eyes are on Tennessee to see if the Democrats' momentum can deliver another stunning upset.
