Labour is on course for its worst local election performance on 7 May, with a new analysis predicting the party could lose 1,900 council seats across England, Wales and Scotland. The forecast, based on recent polling by Professor Stephen Fisher of the University of Oxford, would represent the heaviest losses for any governing party in local elections since comparable records began, dealing a severe blow to Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership.
According to Fisher’s estimates, Labour could lose 74 per cent of the council seats it currently holds that are up for re-election. Reform UK is set to be the biggest winner, gaining 2,260 councillors – tripling its local representation in England overnight. The Greens are predicted to gain 450 seats, the Liberal Democrats 200, while the Conservatives would lose 1,010 councillors, reflecting widespread voter dissatisfaction with the two main parties.
The collapse in Labour’s support is especially stark in Wales, where polling shows the party’s vote share falling by more than half, potentially dropping to third place behind Reform and Plaid Cymru. In Scotland, the Scottish National Party is expected to retain power in Holyrood, with Reform projected to become the second-largest party. Across England, Labour faces challenges from Reform, the Greens, Liberal Democrats and independents, even in its traditional strongholds in London and the north.
The predicted electoral catastrophe has intensified scrutiny on Starmer, whose position has been further complicated by controversy over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador. Despite some improvement in the prime minister’s approval ratings during the US-Israeli conflict in Iran, the full impact of the Mandelson affair on public opinion remains unclear. Labour figures are now questioning whether the May elections will mark the low point for Starmer’s government or signal further declines.
