A seismic shift is occurring within the Conservative Party, as a new survey reveals that an overwhelming majority of its members believe they will need to prop up a government led by Nigel Farage's Reform UK after the next election.
A Party Bracing for Coalition
The survey, conducted by the influential ConservativeHome website, paints a stark picture of the expectations brewing at the grassroots level. It found that nearly seven out of 10 Tory members believe their party should help Nigel Farage enter Downing Street.
When questioned directly on Mr Farage's prospects, more than half of those polled (53.9%) thought it was either highly likely (15.8%) or likely (38.1%) that he would become the next Prime Minister. Regarding the specific form of support, 24.4% of members favoured a formal coalition with Reform, while a larger group of 45% supported a less formal confidence and supply arrangement.
Leadership Under Fire as Defections Mount
This internal sentiment stands in direct opposition to the public stance of the current Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch. Despite the growing pressure, Ms Badenoch has refused to countenance a deal with Reform and has actively criticised its policies.
Her position appears increasingly precarious, however, as the party faces the threat of electoral oblivion. A leaked poll, circulated inside Conservative Party headquarters and obtained by The Daily Telegraph, suggests the Tories would win a mere 14 seats if a general election were held now.
The survey also indicated that two-thirds of the 590 party members polled anticipate more high-profile defections, following the path of MP Danny Kruger and former ministers including Sir Jake Berry, Dame Andrea Jenkyns, and Nadine Dorries.
An Inevitable Reality or a Stark Warning?
The findings align with public calls for cooperation from senior Tory figures like former cabinet minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg. Conversely, Reform UK itself has dismissed the possibility of a deal. Zia Yusuf, an ally of Nigel Farage, stated: "The Tory party is dead... They will be annihilated again in May, and cease to be a national party."
Commenting on the survey, ConHome editor Giles Dilnot noted the profound implications for the Tory leadership. "Nothing in politics is truly inevitable," he said, "but amongst Tory party members a picture of the future is starting to form... for the Tory leader the picture painted is pretty stark."
The Conservative Party has officially refused to respond to the survey's findings, leaving a telling silence over the deep divisions and existential challenges it now confronts.
