Ukraine and Moldova will take a decisive step towards European Union membership on Monday, when senior EU officials and ministers from both countries gather in Luxembourg to launch the first phase of accession negotiations. The move marks a highly symbolic moment for the two former Soviet republics, which submitted their applications days after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Although the EU agreed to open talks in June 2024, substantive negotiations were blocked by Hungary’s pro-Russian prime minister, Viktor Orbán. However, the election of a new Hungarian government in April cleared the way for member states to unanimously approve the opening of the “first cluster” of negotiations on Friday. This initial cluster covers the rule of law and democracy, and its launch unlocks talks on other areas such as the single market, the environment, and economic and social policy.
In a joint statement, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa praised “the determination, courage and hard work shown by both countries in advancing reforms, even in the face of immense challenges.” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “Ukraine is doing what is necessary, and it is important that the EU is also keeping its word. The opening of the first cluster is significant political and moral support for our state and our people.”
Heather Grabbe, a former adviser to the European Commission on enlargement and a senior fellow at the Bruegel thinktank, said the opening of the first cluster really mattered. “It’s the start of the process of getting a deal for membership. So it’s very significant.” She added that starting talks would also be a reality check for Kyiv: “You can’t short circuit the adoption and implementation and enforcement of the EU laws on Ukrainian territory. And that is going to take a while to do. And it’s going to cost administratively.”
To join the EU, a country must adopt thousands of European laws and decisions, then gain the unanimous approval of existing members. EU officials have praised Ukraine and Moldova’s reform efforts, including high-profile arrests such as the naming of Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, as a suspect in a major corruption investigation last month. Yermak has denied all allegations. However, praise is tempered by disappointment that Kyiv has not moved faster on the 10 priority reforms agreed last December, with officials estimating that only 15% of the plan has been completed.
EU officials believe that with sufficient will, Ukraine could complete technical talks in around four years, while acknowledging that membership is ultimately a political decision. A proposal from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz for “associate membership” – representation in EU institutions without voting rights – has failed to gain traction in other capitals, though the idea of “staged membership” appears to have gained support. Grabbe argued that the EU should take a security-first approach to Ukraine, integrating the country into security and defence policy, saying: “Given that Ukraine is the most serious security and defence player on the continent, the only one with battle-hardened troops and a serious arsenal of effective weapons on the modern battlefield dominated by drones, the worst thing that could happen for European security is for some future Ukrainian government to turn against the EU and to become Eurosceptic.”
