US Security Pledges to Ukraine Reportedly Conditional on Donbas Surrender
The Trump administration has reportedly signalled to Ukrainian officials that any American security guarantees are directly dependent on Kyiv first accepting a peace plan that would involve surrendering territory to Vladimir Putin's Russia. According to detailed reporting from the Financial Times, which cited eight individuals familiar with the ongoing diplomatic talks, Washington is urging Ukraine to relinquish control of the Donbas region.
The Core Demand: Ukraine's Industrial Heartland
The Donbas, comprising the oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk, represents Ukraine's historic industrial core. The White House's position, as conveyed by two sources, includes a promise of enhanced weaponry for Kyiv's peacetime army, but only if Ukraine agrees to withdraw its military forces from the eastern areas it still holds. This stance creates a significant hurdle for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was reportedly prepared to sign documents on US security guarantees and a substantial postwar 'prosperity plan' worth an estimated $800 billion as early as this month.
Zelensky indicated last week that the texts for security guarantees, discussed with President Donald Trump at the Davos forum, were '100 per cent ready'. However, the Trump administration is now emphasising that any American security assurances are predicated on Ukraine reaching a prior agreement with Moscow. Washington has yet to grant final approval to either the security pact or the prosperity plan.
Diverging Positions and Diplomatic Manoeuvres
President Putin has consistently demanded painful territorial concessions from Kyiv to end the conflict, while Zelensky has firmly stated that Ukraine will not hand over the Donbas in exchange for peace. A senior Ukrainian official expressed growing ambiguity about Washington's commitment, noting, 'They stop each time the security guarantees can be signed.'
Following a meeting between Trump and Zelensky in Washington last month, US officials described the proposed NATO-like security guarantees as the 'platinum standard' but cautioned the offer 'would not be on the table forever'. Zelensky, for his part, indicated a potential 'compromise' by forgoing ambitions to join NATO in exchange for robust security assurances. Crucially, however, Ukraine insists on receiving confirmed US security commitments before ceding any territory.
Meanwhile, sources indicate the White House believes Kyiv must surrender the Donbas for hostilities to cease and maintains it is applying little pressure on the Russian leader to abandon this persistent demand.
Official Denials and Ongoing Negotiations
Anna Kelly, the deputy White House press secretary, strongly denied the reports, telling the FT: 'This is totally false - the US's only role in the peacemaking process is to bring both sides together to make a deal.' She criticised the newspaper for 'letting malicious actors lie anonymously'. Another person familiar with the US position stated Washington was 'not trying to force any territorial concessions upon Ukraine', clarifying that security guarantees depend on both sides agreeing to a peace deal.
The issue of land remained unresolved during the first trilateral talks involving the White House, the Kremlin, and Kyiv, held in Abu Dhabi over the weekend. A senior Kyiv official suggested Washington uses the promise of guarantees 'to push Ukraine' to accept concessions believed necessary to bring 'Russia to the table'.
The Strategic Stakes of the Donbas
The Donbas has served as a defensive bulwark against Moscow's forces since 2014. A 50km fortified line, known as the 'fortress belt', includes key cities like Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Polling by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology reveals that about 54 per cent of Ukrainians object to formally ceding all of Donbas to Russian control, even in exchange for security guarantees from the US and Europe.
After nearly four years of intensified conflict, Moscow's forces currently control approximately 90 per cent of the region. The US is reportedly pressuring Ukraine towards a troop withdrawal to create a 'free economic zone', a plan that would see the area internationally recognised as Russian territory, policed by Russian national guard units. Following pushback from Kyiv and European allies, Trump and Zelensky reportedly agreed a compromise involving a neutral force overseeing the region.
Zelensky may accept the concept of a free economic zone, but only if the area remains internationally recognised as Ukrainian territory and Putin's forces withdraw an equal distance.
Vague Guarantees and Unresolved Issues
The proposed US security guarantees are said to include a promise to 'mirror' NATO's Article 5 collective defence clause and pledge a coordinated military response to a sustained attack. However, sources caution these allowances risk being too vague for Ukraine and too broad for Russia. Putin insists he will not end the war unless Ukraine unilaterally and completely withdraws from the eastern Donbas.
'There is enormous pressure being put on the Ukrainians right now,' said one source. Military analysts and Kyiv officials warn that ceding the Donbas would provide Putin's forces a strategic launch pad for deeper attacks into Ukraine.
The Path Ahead
US envoy Steve Witkoff, who travelled to Moscow with Jared Kushner for talks with Putin, stated, 'I think we've got it down to one issue... and that means it's solvable.' Zelensky, speaking in Davos, concurred: 'It's all about the land. This is the issue which is not solved yet... the Russians have to be ready for compromises, not only Ukraine.'
Negotiators are scheduled to return to the United Arab Emirates on February 1 for another round of talks. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged the constructive nature of the contacts but emphasised 'serious work ahead', reiterating that the territorial issue is 'of fundamental importance to the Russian side'.
The so-called 'Anchorage formula', purportedly agreed between Trump and Putin last August, envisages Ukraine handing Russia control of all of Donbas and freezing front lines elsewhere as a condition for peace. The region's economic significance—once accounting for over half of Ukraine's coal, steel, and coke production, and containing rare earth minerals—adds to the high stakes, shaping the potential historical legacies of both Putin and Zelensky.
