The prospect of a second Donald Trump presidency is creating a dilemma for UK political leaders, particularly Labour's Keir Starmer. While British prime ministers typically avoid commenting on US elections, the gravity of Trump's potential return makes the question unavoidable. Trump's first term fractured the post-war geopolitical order, and a second term could shatter it entirely, dissolving the concept of 'the West' and emboldening nationalist movements.
For Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the challenge is managing his party's Trumpian leanings. Though Sunak's own preferences are establishment conservative, the Conservative Party has absorbed the spirit of Trumpism, especially since the 2016 Brexit vote. Both movements share a denial of failure and a cult-like zealotry, with figures like Boris Johnson and Liz Truss endorsing Trump's revival. Sunak lacks the courage or incentive to repudiate this tendency.
Starmer faces the opposite problem. Labour supporters are incensed by Trump's rhetoric and frustrated by Starmer's diplomatic deflection. However, as a potential prime minister, Starmer must maintain functional engagement with the US, even if Trump despises the values that motivate Starmer's politics. The 'special relationship' would be strained between a vindictive despot and a former human rights lawyer.
This situation would force renewed focus on Britain's relations with Europe. An incoming Labour government would share strategic interests with EU nations seeking reliable allies. However, Brexit remains a powerful obstacle. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement, negotiated by David Frost, is designed to push Britain and the EU apart, with no mechanism for reversal. It codifies the delusion that prosperity requires regulatory divergence and fears any dialogue as a Trojan horse for reintegration.
Cooperation in foreign policy, security, defence, energy, climate, and migration is increasingly imperative. Yet the Brexit deal prevents the formal institutions needed for such collaboration. Starmer's dilemma is that Trump's return would expose the folly of Brexit, forcing him to choose between the US and Europe, a choice that should never have been necessary.
