With the US presidential election looming, political analysts are increasingly questioning whether a potential Donald Trump victory could pressure Vladimir Putin into ending the war in Ukraine.
Experts suggest that the Russian president may be waiting for the November election results before making any significant moves towards peace negotiations. Trump's perceived softer stance on Russia and his repeated claims of being able to "resolve the conflict quickly" have fuelled speculation about a possible ceasefire under his administration.
The Putin-Trump Dynamic
Observers note that Putin appears to be playing a long game, potentially banking on a Trump return to the White House. "There's a clear calculation in Moscow that Trump would be more amenable to Russian interests," said one European diplomat speaking anonymously.
This theory gained traction after Trump recently stated he could "have peace negotiated within 24 hours" if re-elected. While critics dismiss this as campaign rhetoric, some believe Putin might see an opportunity to negotiate more favourable terms under a Trump presidency.
Western Concerns Grow
European leaders are reportedly growing increasingly anxious about the potential consequences of a Trump victory. Many fear it could lead to reduced US support for Ukraine and pressure on Kyiv to accept territorial concessions.
"The nightmare scenario for European capitals is Trump pushing Ukraine into a bad peace deal that essentially rewards Russian aggression," commented a senior NATO official.
What This Means for Ukraine
Ukrainian officials maintain they won't let external political changes affect their war strategy. However, privately there are concerns about maintaining Western support should Trump return to office.
Military analysts warn that any perception of weakening US commitment could embolden Russian forces on the battlefield, making negotiations more urgent as winter approaches.
