Trump's Iran Strike Calculus Relies on Kushner and Witkoff's Geneva Negotiations
President Donald Trump's potential order for airstrikes against Iran is poised to hinge critically on the judgment of his special envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, as they engage in last-ditch negotiations scheduled for Thursday in Geneva. According to sources familiar with the matter, these talks will shape Trump's calculus on whether Tehran is stalling over a deal to relinquish its capacity to produce nuclear weapons, with the US president yet to make a final determination on military action.
High-Stakes Diplomacy Amid Military Buildup
The administration is preparing for Iran to submit its latest proposal this week, ahead of what officials describe as a crucial round of negotiations. Trump has received multiple briefings on military options and solicited views from a broad range of West Wing officials in recent weeks. However, uncertainty persists within the administration about whether airstrikes would be sufficient to strong-arm Iran into a deal or even lead to the ouster of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his circle of religious leaders.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump denied reports that General Dan Caine, chair of the joint chiefs of staff, has cautioned him about the risks of launching a military campaign against Iran. He stated, "I am the one that makes the decision, I would rather have a Deal than not but, if we don't make a Deal, it will be a very bad day for that Country and, very sadly, its people."
Broader Context of Trump's Policies and Incidents
Amid these developments, Trump has also threatened to ramp up his global tariff war, declaring he can use tariffs in a "much more powerful and obnoxious way," prompting the UK and EU to seek urgent clarity on trade deals struck last summer. This follows a Supreme Court ruling that he overstepped his legal authority with previous tariff measures.
In other news, an armed 21-year-old man, Austin Tucker Martin, was shot and killed after entering Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida while carrying a shotgun. The FBI is investigating his movements and motives, with reports indicating he came from a family of Trump supporters and had become fixated on the Jeffrey Epstein files.
The US Supreme Court has decided to hear arguments in a climate accountability lawsuit, potentially hindering recent climate litigation trends. Additionally, FBI director Kash Patel faced scrutiny after footage emerged of him celebrating with the US hockey team in Milan, despite ongoing investigations into the Mar-a-Lago incident and other high-profile cases.
Additional National and International Developments
A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll reveals that most US adults believe Trump is moving the country in the wrong direction during his second presidency. In Mexico, cartel violence has surged following a military raid that killed a top drug trafficker, leading to widespread shutdowns. The US military conducted a strike on an alleged drug smuggling boat in the Caribbean, killing three men, marking its third such attack in a week.
Senate Democrats are calling for the refund of approximately $175 billion in tariff revenues deemed illegal by the Supreme Court. Severe weather has impacted the north-eastern US, with blizzard warnings and travel bans in place. Ralph Abraham, a top official at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has stepped down, adding to leadership changes. Major US universities are grappling with revelations from the Epstein files regarding campus connections.
