US President Donald Trump has insisted that talks with Iran to end the ongoing war are progressing 'very well', after sending a '15-point action list' of demands via mediators. However, the United States has been unusually coy about the contents of the proposal and has yet to confirm who it is supposedly negotiating with, while Iran disputes that discussions are even taking place.
Iranian officials have rubbished the plan, describing the conditions as 'excessive', 'maximalist' and 'unreasonable'. Senior officials who reviewed the proposal felt it only served US and Israeli interests, a source told Reuters, though adding that diplomacy is still on the table. Details leaked so far include restraints on Iran's nuclear programme, enhanced monitoring by the UN's nuclear watchdog, the dismantling of infrastructure and the handing over of existing enriched uranium.
Analysts have told The Independent that despite US boasts of success, the war will not be ended militarily. One month since the conflict began, Iran feels it has the upper hand. Eroded trust will make it harder for the US to make any breakthrough in diplomacy, while an emboldened Iran will see any offer of truce as 'surrender'.
Andreas Krieg, senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King's College London, said the demands are in line with what has already been tabled by the US over the past year. However, the difference is that 'it comes against a backdrop of zero mutual trust and a geopolitical standoff where Iran has better cards to play than the US'. He added that 'Trump has essentially no alternative to a diplomatic settlement. There is no military way out for him. His offer is taken by Iran as surrender.'
Dr Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East Security at the Royal United Services Institute, said the reported proposals look broader in ambition than the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). She described the latest debate as a 'quasi-theatrical, stunt-like saga' over whether Washington is offering a serious off-ramp or repackaging older hardline demands previously rejected by Tehran.
