One year into his second administration, Donald Trump's chaotic but calculated foreign policy has redrawn the global map, with his pursuit of Greenland symbolising a broader, disruptive power play. The former president publicly set his sights on the vast Arctic island even before his formal inauguration as the 47th President. Now, this ambition sits at the heart of a potential clash between Western nations and a looming trade war.
The Madness and Method of a Disruptive Doctrine
To understand Trump's global manoeuvres, one must look beyond the apparent chaos. His actions, from undermining NATO over Ukraine to adopting fringe social media theories about Europe's decline, have systematically served Russian interests in ways that baffle traditional analysts. He has behaved, observers note, in a manner a former KGB officer like Vladimir Putin might dream of—weakening European unity and the military alliance Moscow fears most.
Trump's "America First" policy has swung wildly from isolationist rhetoric to aggressive intervention. His administration has used force to remove Venezuela's president, conducted extrajudicial killings at sea, and launched strikes on Iran—actions widely considered illegal under international law. He has bluntly stated he will run Venezuela and control its oil revenues, threatening further attacks if Caracas resists. This "might-is-right" approach starkly echoes Putin's invasions of Georgia and Ukraine.
Yet, the Greenland obsession introduces a contradictory thread. The Trump administration insists US sovereignty over the island is vital to protect it from Russian and Chinese aggression. Control would also secure Arctic sea passages, which Russia is aggressively developing with new icebreakers, and help monitor Russia's shadow oil tanker fleet that evades sanctions. The US maintained a significant military presence there during the Cold War and retains extensive rights, but Trump wants outright ownership, especially as melting ice reveals untapped mineral wealth.
A World Divided: The Three Spheres Strategy
Trump's strategic intent is becoming clearer. He speaks openly about re-establishing unchallenged American dominance in the Western Hemisphere, indifferent to the economic chaos caused by his threats to NATO and Greenland. His national security strategy frames Europe as a fading entity, no longer a natural part of the sphere he wishes to control.
This worldview divides the globe into three spheres of influence: an American West, a Russian chunk, and the rest for China. Consequently, Trump believes Europe should pay for its own defence against Russia. From this perspective, owning Greenland to anchor a "Golden Dome" missile defence system makes strategic sense, allowing America to secure resources and leave Europe to handle Putin alone.
The core driver is resource dominance. Trump concluded that America has been "asleep at the wheel" while China secured global supplies of critical minerals and rare earths. Beijing controls up to 40% of the world's rare earth reserves and 90% of processing capacity. Greenland holds up to 12% of the world's most defence-critical "heavy rare earths"—like dysprosium and neodymium—essential for missiles, radar, and jet engines.
Global Resource Grab: From Congo to Ukraine
This resource competition extends far beyond the Arctic. In South America, where China is a primary trading partner for nations like Brazil and Chile, Trump has intervened aggressively. He provided Argentina with a currency swap, abducted Venezuela's president, and threatened Colombia. He eyes the mineral-rich Democratic Republic of the Congo, where Chinese firms control most cobalt production, and has considered backing military action there in return for mineral access.
His engagement with Ukraine has been purely transactional: a deal granting the US up to 50% of future profits from new mineral investments in return for not abandoning Kyiv entirely. Trump views Ukraine as firmly within Russia's sphere, has endorsed the Kremlin's false claim that President Zelensky is illegitimate, and backed Russia's annexation of at least 20% of Ukrainian territory.
NATO allies, attempting to placate him, have sent naval flotillas to Greenland's waters to reaffirm the alliance. However, a senior NATO general warned The Independent that Trump's strategy is flawed: "He doesn't realise that the security of the United State's eastern seaboard is guaranteed by NATO... The US needs NATO."
Ultimately, analysts suggest Trump's actions are driven by a personal fascination with strongmen. Fiona Hill, a former White House Russia adviser, describes it as a "man crush" on Putin, who she says manipulates Trump's fragile ego. Trump, she argues, is trying to build a world recognised by three men: himself, Putin, and China's Xi Jinping. For him, their approval is the true "coin of the realm," explaining a tumultuous first year that has reshaped the world order through a blend of strategic resource pursuit and personal vanity.
