Trump Must Assert Control Over Israel and Declare Iran Victory to Prevent Wider War
Three weeks into the conflict with Iran, the situation shows no signs of abating, with events spiralling further from any semblance of control once held by Donald Trump. The latest escalation involves the destruction of the world's largest natural gas fields on both the Iranian and Qatari sides of their shared border, a move that underscores the deepening crisis.
Israeli Actions and Trump's Dilemma
This mission, conducted by Israeli forces with the explicit goal of crippling Iran's critical oil infrastructure, was executed regardless of the long-term impact on the Iranian populace or the stability of the region. While President Trump has denied prior knowledge or approval, the attack aligns perfectly with Benjamin Netanyahu's objective of permanently weakening Iran, an informal war aim that risks pushing the nation toward failed state status.
In a paradoxical response, Trump has threatened to "massively blow up" remaining Iranian gas reserves if retaliatory strikes continue, a stance that may only embolden Tehran further. Eliminating such a vital global resource would intensify both domestic and international pressure on the president to cease hostilities before triggering another worldwide economic depression.
Confusion in US Strategy and Allied Concerns
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, described as the most absurd member of Trump's cabinet since Kristi Noem's departure, has asserted that American objectives remain unchanged since the conflict's inception. However, with no clear initial goals or coherent plan, this statement merely highlights the administration's ongoing confusion regarding desired outcomes from the war.
Trump's shifting preferences—from inciting revolution to demanding unconditional surrender or installing a favourable Iranian leader—have all failed to materialise. The consistent aim of halting Iran's nuclear ambitions remains unachieved, potentially due to hidden stockpiles of enriched uranium salvaged before last summer's Operation Midnight Hammer.
Meanwhile, the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded, Gulf gas field damage will require years of repair, and the USS Gerald R Ford, one of the world's largest warships, is en route to Crete for maintenance, underscoring the value of international alliances.
International Calls for De-escalation
Hegseth has criticised "ungrateful" allies for not thanking Trump for addressing the nuclear threat, despite no tangible success and increased regional volatility that has disrupted global oil, gas, and resource supplies. In contrast, a joint statement from France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Japan, and Britain offers a more measured approach.
These nations have condemned Iran's aggression against Qatar, an innocent party in the conflict, while also advocating for an immediate halt to attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations—a directive that applies equally to US and Israeli operations. They have expressed willingness to assist in securing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, provided proper planning is in place.
Qatar's prime minister, whose nation has endured unprovoked attacks from both Israel and Iran in the past year, has joined growing calls for de-escalation and conflict resolution. Under different circumstances, Trump might leverage such a crisis through his Board of Peace as another achievement to bolster his Nobel Peace Prize credentials.
The Path Forward for Trump
To avoid sliding into a pan-regional conflict, humiliation, and global recession, Trump must act decisively. He should declare a strategic victory, direct Netanyahu to cease bombings, and prioritise negotiating a viable deal. Ultimately, this aligns with the diplomatic responsibilities he was elected to fulfil, offering a chance to extricate America from another unwinnable, asymmetric forever war and cement his legacy as a peace president.
