Donald Trump’s addiction to framing every event in apocalyptic terms is what allows conservative commentators to praise him as a once-in-a-century president. But his reckless brinkmanship risks leading America into a steep decline, reminiscent of Britain’s Suez crisis in 1956, after which its global standing never recovered.
This week, Trump threatened that Iran’s 7,000-year-old civilisation would die if it did not comply with his demands. He swiftly discovered he could not follow through and had to be rescued by Pakistan and China, pulling back just 88 minutes before his implied deadline. As the late Iranian essayist Bastani Parizi wrote: “Sometimes the fate of this kingdom hangs by a hair, but that hair does not break.”
Faced by Iran’s refusal to back down, symbolised by millions of Iranians volunteering to stand on bridges, a late-night White House scramble ensued to find a justification for a semi-dignified end. The US administration claimed a “legitimate misunderstanding” led Iran to believe the ceasefire covered Lebanon, as mediators from Pakistan insisted. The White House also asserted that Trump’s acceptance of a 10-point plan was actually a reference to a different, milder plan yet to be revealed.
By Thursday, there was zero agreement on what was agreed to secure the two-week ceasefire. Iranian diplomats say Trump, realising coercive diplomacy had failed, promised Pakistani mediators more than he intended to deliver, solely to get himself off the hook. From Tehran’s perspective, Trump has proved entirely untrustworthy.
Trump is now trapped, just like oil tankers awaiting clearance from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. His poll ratings are sliding ahead of midterm elections, and Americans face $4-a-gallon petrol. The world economy is unhinged by the worst disruption in oil market history. As the Iranian foreign minister said: “The ball is in the US’s court, and the world is watching.”
