Starmer's Fragile China Success Demands Careful Handling
Prime Minister Keir Starmer returns from his much-hyped diplomatic mission to China with modest gains that may appear more substantial over time, yet faces a precarious path ahead to preserve these fragile achievements. The British leader's visit, hailed as "historic" by his government, represents the first by a UK prime minister to China in eight years, marking a tentative step toward rebuilding a relationship that has deteriorated significantly in recent times.
A Modest Harvest from High-Profile Diplomacy
The tangible outcomes from this high-profile trip remain limited: a small concession on tariffs affecting Scotch whisky exports, visa-free travel arrangements for British tourists visiting China, and the lifting of sanctions previously imposed on British parliamentarians critical of President Xi Jinping. The most substantial announcement concerned a £10.6 billion commitment by pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca – though notably, this investment will fund facilities within China rather than Britain.
Even when combined with vague pledges about future cooperation in technology and investment sectors, these takeaways hardly constitute what might be described, to borrow a historical phrase, as a Great Leap Forward in bilateral relations. They certainly don't represent the kind of threat to American interests that might justify alarmist rhetoric from across the Atlantic.
Navigating Geopolitical Complexities
President Donald Trump's characterization of Britain's attempt to improve relations with China as "very dangerous" came during remarks at the premiere of his wife's film, where he understandably focused his attention elsewhere. Starmer might well feel relieved that Trump didn't offer a more fiery response, instead reserving his scorn for Canada's recent rapprochement with China. Yet the prime minister might also reflect ruefully that the paucity of concrete results couldn't remotely be described as dangerous by even the most paranoid observer.
When Starmer asserts that Britain doesn't need to choose between America and China regarding strategic partnerships, he remains correct for the present moment. Indeed, establishing anything resembling a stable, long-term relationship with either superpower would represent a considerable diplomatic achievement given Britain's post-Brexit vulnerabilities.
The Challenging Backdrop to Renewed Engagement
The context for this diplomatic initiative remains profoundly challenging. Relations between London and Beijing deteriorated significantly following Theresa May's futile 2018 visit seeking a post-Brexit trade deal. Multiple factors have strained ties: espionage concerns, Beijing's alliance with Moscow, and China's continuing human rights abuses, particularly in Hong Kong and toward Uyghur Muslims. Britain also carries historical baggage from the colonial era, while the gross disparity in military and economic power between the two nations cannot be ignored.
China, by some measures already the world's largest economy, demonstrated during last year's trade wars that it can defy American will. Against this unpromising backdrop, Starmer's modest achievements represent what he rightly describes as merely the beginning of a process that could eventually yield substantial benefits for Britain.
Economic Necessity Driving Diplomatic Realignment
If President Trump views future prospects in Sino-British relations as dangerous, he might consider how a middle-ranking economy like Britain – unusually open and dependent on overseas trade – should sustain itself when access to American markets faces restriction. British businesses already contend with periodic threats of punitive tariffs imposed without warning at presidential whim, as demonstrated during both the post-"Liberation Day" trade measures and the Greenland crisis.
What Starmer terms a "more sophisticated" Sino-British relationship has become inevitable given Britain's circumstances. With little realistic prospect of rejoining the European Union in the short term, and America pivoting away from European allies it now criticises for "civilisational erasure," Britain has little choice but to cultivate relationships with other major economies – notably India, where a trade agreement has already been reached, and China.
The Long Road Ahead
There exists no harm in the prime minister leading delegations of British business and cultural figures to explore possibilities for reducing Britain's £40 billion annual trade deficit with China and securing desperately needed investment in future industries. Closer economic and cultural relations might eventually yield greater British influence over issues like the persecution of Jimmy Lai and Hong Kong democracy activists, or even China's support for Russia's war machine.
Such influence will require time to develop, echoing Chinese statesman Zhou Enlai's famous response when asked about the impact of the French Revolution during President Nixon's 1972 visit: "It is too early to say." We might similarly reserve judgment about Starmer's seemingly underwhelming diplomatic initiative as we peer into an uncertain future.
Economic necessity means Britain must manage various geopolitical rivalries, including with America, while pursuing its national interests. Starmer demonstrated wisdom in avoiding talk of a "golden age" in UK-China relations. True success will demand a more sophisticated, nuanced approach than such grandiose rhetoric would suggest – one that acknowledges both the opportunities and profound challenges inherent in engaging with a rising superpower while maintaining vital relationships with traditional allies.
