The smoke has cleared over Caracas, but the political intrigue surrounding the sudden downfall of Nicolás Maduro remains thick and opaque. In a stunning overnight raid, US forces captured the Venezuelan president, delivering him to a jail cell in New York. Yet, in the days that followed, a curious stillness settled over the capital. The regime Maduro led for over a decade appeared not just intact, but seamlessly transitioning to new leadership under his former vice-president, Delcy Rodríguez.
The Mechanics of a Calculated Takeover
This was no ordinary regime change. The absence of significant military resistance to a prolonged, low-flying US incursion into heavily defended airspace points to a stark conclusion: key figures within Venezuela's power structure were complicit. Vladimir Padrino López, the defence minister, and Diosdado Cabello, the interior minister, seemingly calculated that their survival depended on sacrificing Maduro to maintain their own control.
The evidence, while circumstantial, is compelling. Following the raid, Donald Trump's press conference revealed the brutal pragmatism of the operation. He bluntly stated the US intention to take control of Venezuela's vast oil reserves. More telling was his dismissal of the exiled opposition leader, Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, and his conditional endorsement of Delcy Rodríguez remaining in power if she "does what we want". The Venezuelan opposition, having long offered the country to Washington, found itself summarily sidelined.
A Bargain Struck: Oil for Continuity
The deal, as pieced together from available information, appears to be a cold exchange. Maduro's inner circle offered the Trump administration two prized assets: the person of Nicolás Maduro himself, and unimpeded access to Venezuela's oil wealth, the largest proven reserves in the world. In return, the existing power structure—the military, the police, the state institutions, and the lucrative economic interests they control—would remain untouched.
For Trump, this avoided the quagmire of a full-scale invasion and occupation. Installing an exiled opposition with no local standing would have required rebuilding the state from scratch, creating a chaotic and target-rich environment for insurgent military and paramilitary groups. For Rodríguez, Padrino López, and Cabello, it preserved their authority and the vast networks of patronage and power they have built over decades.
The transition was executed with remarkable speed. After initial defiance, Rodríguez swiftly pivoted to cooperation. By Monday morning, following a ruling from the Venezuelan supreme court, she was sworn in as president, surrounded by Maduro's former allies. The message to the public was clear: the machinery of state continues, just with a different figurehead.
Uncertain Future and Lingering Risks
The path ahead is fraught with peril for both Caracas and Washington. The new Rodríguez government must perform a delicate balancing act: implementing Washington's demands—primarily on oil—while maintaining a façade of national sovereignty and anti-imperialist rhetoric, a cornerstone of Venezuelan politics for 26 years. They must do this with a US armada stationed off their coast, a stark revival of 21st-century gunboat diplomacy.
Meanwhile, the US faces its own constraints. Trump's continued resistance to a full-scale invasion limits his ability to enforce his will completely, granting Caracas some room to manoeuvre. The real tragedy continues unabated for the Venezuelan people, both at home and abroad. A nation already gripped by a profound humanitarian and economic crisis now finds its fate dictated by a backroom bargain between its entrenched elites and a foreign power.
The machinations behind this extraordinary moment in global politics remain darkly veiled. What is clear is that the removal of Nicolás Maduro was not a victory for Venezuelan democracy, but a transactional rearrangement of power that leaves the underlying architecture of his regime firmly in place. The fires in Caracas may be out, but the long-burning crisis of the Venezuelan state is far from over.
