Senior US officials have cast doubt on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's assurances that a war with Iran would be swift and straightforward, according to multiple reports. The scepticism follows a meeting between Netanyahu and President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago in December, where the Israeli leader pitched a comprehensive conflict aimed at toppling the Iranian regime.
Netanyahu reportedly offered Trump the Israel Prize and suggested that defeating Iran would reduce Israel's reliance on US military aid. The Mossad assessed that Iran's regime was fragile due to internal protests, making it ripe for a short campaign. However, unnamed Israeli officials initially predicted the conflict would last only days, with military planners stockpiling interceptors for a three-week war at most.
The reality has proven different. In Gaza, Hamas persists despite a devastating campaign; in Lebanon, Hezbollah retains rocket capabilities; and in Iran, the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has not led to regime change but to consolidation around the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Axios reported that Vice-President JD Vance expressed scepticism about Netanyahu's claims, with a US source saying, 'Before the war, Bibi really sold it to the president as being easy.'
Former US diplomat Daniel C Kurtzer urged caution, but the perception among Trump officials is that Netanyahu overpromised. The conflict, which began after Hamas's attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, has expanded across the region, challenging Netanyahu's narrative of quick victories.
