In a dramatic escalation of tensions between two key Gulf allies, Saudi Arabia has formally accused the United Arab Emirates of orchestrating the escape of a prominent Yemeni separatist leader from the Saudi capital. The incident threatens to fracture a strategic partnership central to the long-running conflict in Yemen.
The Accusation and the Escape
Saudi authorities have levelled a serious allegation against their neighbour, claiming that Emirati officials directly assisted Aidarous al-Zubaidi in leaving Riyadh. Al-Zubaidi is the president of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a powerful secessionist group that seeks an independent southern Yemen. He had been residing in the Saudi capital under a form of political detention, part of a complex arrangement following the signing of the Riyadh Agreement in 2019, which aimed to unify factions opposing the Houthi rebels.
The exact circumstances of his departure remain shrouded in some mystery, but Saudi sources assert that the operation involved covert support from within the UAE. This accusation, delivered through official diplomatic channels, marks a stunning public breakdown in trust between the two nations, who have historically been close partners within the Gulf Cooperation Council and in leading the military coalition against the Houthis in Yemen.
Deepening Cracks in a Strategic Alliance
This incident did not occur in a vacuum. It exposes the fundamental and growing divergence between Saudi and Emirati strategies in Yemen. While both nations joined forces to intervene against the Iran-aligned Houthis in 2015, their long-term objectives and local alliances have increasingly diverged.
Saudi Arabia's primary focus has been on defeating the Houthis and restoring the internationally recognised government, seeking stability on its southern border. The UAE, however, has cultivated strong ties with southern separatist forces like the STC, viewing them as a more reliable and capable long-term partner in the region. The Emirati military withdrawal from Yemen in 2019 did not end its political and financial influence over these groups.
Analysts suggest the UAE sees a friendly, independent southern Yemen as beneficial for its regional security and economic interests. Al-Zubaidi's presence in Riyadh was a constant source of friction, with the STC leader likely chafing under Saudi oversight. His return to southern Yemen, allegedly with Emirati help, significantly strengthens the STC's position and undermines Saudi efforts to maintain a cohesive anti-Houthi front.
Implications for Yemen and Regional Diplomacy
The fallout from this accusation is likely to be severe and multifaceted. Firstly, it deals a potentially fatal blow to the already fragile Riyadh Agreement. This pact was a cornerstone of Saudi attempts to broker unity between the Yemeni government and the southern separatists. With al-Zubaidi now free and accusing Saudi Arabia of detaining him, prospects for renewed talks appear dim.
Secondly, the public rift complicates the military campaign against the Houthis. A divided coalition is less effective, potentially offering an advantage to the Houthi forces. Thirdly, it signals a new era of overt competition between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi for influence in the Arabian Peninsula's strategic corners, moving beyond behind-the-scenes manoeuvring into open diplomatic confrontation.
For the people of Yemen, this geopolitical spat between external powers promises further instability and delay in any peaceful resolution to a war that has created one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. The path to peace, already fraught with difficulty, now faces an additional, significant obstacle born from the breakdown of an alliance once thought unshakeable.
