Deposed Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and his family are unlikely to live an extravagant lifestyle in Russia. Instead, they will probably be hidden away in a secluded estate, shielded from public view, according to reports.
Assad was whisked away without a last message to his people, the aircraft’s transponder deliberately switched off to avoid detection as it departed from an airbase in Syria. The operation was carried out with such secrecy that even the dictator’s brother reportedly was not informed.
According to Bloomberg, Assad required some persuading from Russia to leave the country, with Russian intelligence agents orchestrating his escape to Moscow. As a pariah on the global stage, his two major allies, Russia and Iran, were the obvious places for refuge. By choosing Moscow, observers suggest, Assad opted for a familiar place that aligned with his lavish habits, while also selecting a refuge with relative geopolitical stability.
Russia, whose leader Vladimir Putin is under an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, is also less likely to face pressure or incentives to hand Assad over to those seeking to prosecute him. David Lesch, a Syria expert at Trinity University in Texas who has met with Assad on multiple occasions, said: “In Assad’s mind, Russia and Vladimir Putin can better protect his family from extradition or any other attempts by the international community to bring him to justice.”
Despite Syria’s growing dependence on Moscow, the personal relationship between Assad and Putin had always remained chilly. By all accounts, the two leaders remained wary of each other throughout the years, with Moscow often frustrated by what it perceived as Assad’s refusal to make even the smallest concessions toward reforming his country or engaging with opposition groups. When Assad fell, Russian media and state officials were quick to put on a brave face, emphasising the narrative that Assad was to blame for his defeat. Still, the Kremlin stressed that it was Putin’s personal decision to evacuate Assad.
Facing a position of irrelevance in the Russian capital, Assad is expected to lead a sheltered but comfortable life, as long as Putin remains in charge. Moscow has become a haven for a motley crew of fugitives, but Assad’s fate most closely mirrors that of Ukraine’s former president, Viktor Yanukovych, who has lived in obscurity in Russia since his ousting in 2014.
