Israeli Security Sources Admit No Clear Strategy for Iran Regime Change
Expectations that airstrikes could trigger a popular uprising in Iran have been dismissed as wishful thinking by multiple Israeli security sources. According to insiders, Israel launched attacks without a realistic plan for regime change, relying more on optimism than hard intelligence.
Nuclear Uranium as the Ultimate Litmus Test
If the Iranian regime maintains power, the long-term measure of success in the conflict may depend on the fate of 440kg of enriched uranium, buried under a mountain by US strikes last June. Former and serving Israeli defence and intelligence officials highlighted that this material, enough for over ten nuclear warheads, could enable Iran to race towards building a weapon if it remains in the country.
These 440kg of uranium are one of the clearest litmus tests for how this war ends, whether it is a success, said a former senior Israeli defence and intelligence official. We need to be in a position where either this material is out of Iran, or you have a regime where you are confident that it is safeguarded in a very meaningful way.
Risks of a Pyrrhic Victory
Hardliners in Iran have long argued that a nuclear deterrent is essential for the Islamic republic's survival. The overwhelming military dominance of US and Israeli forces in this war is likely to reinforce that view if the regime survives. Joab Rosenberg, former deputy head of Israel's military intelligence research division, warned that any conclusion leaving the uranium in Iranian hands would be a pyrrhic victory, potentially accelerating Iran's pursuit of a nuclear bomb.
The US is reportedly considering a high-risk mission to secure the uranium, with pre-war negotiations including proposals for Iran to surrender it to another country. It's a high-risk game this war, because if it succeeds, it would completely change the Middle East for the best, the former official added. But if we bomb everything and the regime stays in power, and they continue to maintain those 400kg of uranium, I think we will be starting the countdown to an attempt by Iran to go to a nuclear weapon.
Uncertainty Under New Leadership
The assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has compounded the nuclear threat. He invested heavily in a programme with military potential but hesitated to order weapon construction. His son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, presents unknown risks. With [Ali] Khamenei we knew almost everything about his decision making, said another former senior intelligence official. With Mojtaba, I am not so sure we have the knowledge to assess what he will do with the nuclear programme. He could run to a bomb right now.
Despite these dangers, the US-Israeli war enjoys broad support within Israel's military establishment, reflecting popular backing in Israeli society. After the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks, Israel prioritised removing immediate threats, such as Iran's ballistic missile programme, through nearly two weeks of airstrikes that have degraded much of Iran's military capacity.
Regime Change Deemed Unrealistic
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump initiated the war with calls for regime change, but experts say an air campaign alone cannot collapse the Iranian government. It's wishful thinking, said one intelligence source. We never knew how to get into the heads of 90 million people. So how would we know how to assess whether they would go to the streets or not? We are hoping they will go.
Sima Shine, an Iran specialist and former Mossad research head, noted that a popular uprising during war was extremely unlikely, with no signs of protests or significant defections since the campaign began. However, she suggested that long-term impacts of bombing could weaken the regime, potentially easing external changes.
Military Dominance and Strategic Fallout
Many in Israeli intelligence backed bombing over negotiations to dismantle Iran's missiles and industry, even if it risks spurring nuclear ambitions. After October 7, Israel is not the same state it used to be before, one official said. The first priority of the IDF is to protect our families ... then we will deal with all the rest.
The bombing has severely damaged Iran's military-industrial base, but experts warn that without regime change, a battered Iran retaining enriched uranium poses significant nuclear risks. Israel's focus on immediate tactical gains may leave it isolated, as oil prices rise and regional stability falters. Israel is not willing or able to capitalise on its dramatic military achievements by trying to move to the more political aspect of building new alliances, another former senior official concluded. I am fearful we will still be stuck in this place.
