Iran is embarking on a delicate diplomatic transformation, cautiously extending olive branches to its Arab neighbours while simultaneously grappling with severe internal repression and regional security threats. This fragile charm offensive represents Tehran's attempt to reposition itself in the Middle East following recent American military actions and shifting regional alliances.
A Regional Recalibration
The tentative foreign policy adjustments emerge from both strategic necessity and opportunity. Much of Iran's network of regional military alliances has been dismantled in recent years, creating pressure for new approaches. Simultaneously, Tehran perceives an opening created by Donald Trump's unilateral strikes in June that killed more than 1,000 Iranians and Israel's attack on Hamas negotiators in Qatar, which unsettled Gulf states.
At a recent briefing in Tehran, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi articulated this new positioning, stating: "The solid foundations of international law have been subjected to unprecedented attacks by powers that were expected to be its permanent defenders and custodians." Iranian diplomats remain astonished by Europe's lack of condemnation for the US strikes, with Trump's subsequent confession of his direct involvement in planning the operation while pretending to negotiate over Iran's nuclear programme intensifying this anger.
Changing Regional Perceptions
Iran's outreach appears to be finding some receptive audiences. Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute notes: "After the Israeli attack on Qatar in September, there is a massive shift in the thinking in the Gulf Cooperation Council as a whole. For so many years they viewed Iran as the main threat... Now many are seeing that on the one hand Iran has been weakened, but also Iran does not have the same hostility in their perception, whereas Israel is completely unconstrained."
This sentiment was echoed by Oman's foreign minister, Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, who recently stated bluntly at a Bahrain forum: "Israel, not Iran, is the prime resource of insecurity in the region." Professor Mohammad Marandi from Tehran University argues that the world order is undergoing fundamental change, with American exceptionalism losing its grip and images from Gaza transforming Western perceptions of Israel.
Domestic Repression Undermining Soft Power
Despite diplomatic overtures, Iran shows no signs of relaxing its iron grip domestically. A UN independent international fact-finding mission found that by mid-August, security forces had arrested approximately 21,000 people following the June strikes. Executions reached their highest recorded level since 2015, with even leftwing translators being rounded up.
The reformist former president Mohammad Khatami recently criticised the government's inability to release political prisoners or lift internet restrictions, noting that "the summoning, recalling, and even trial of many politicians, media figures, intellectuals, and even reputable and tested figures has increased." Mostafa Tajzadeh, a reformist political prisoner, wrote from Evin prison that Iran remains trapped in purgatory, waiting for change but uncertain of the outcome.
Nuclear Dilemma and Security Fears
For all the talk of diplomatic transformation, Tehran isn't abandoning hard power or its right to enrich uranium. Many officials privately fear they're "between the wars" and must prepare for another US assault before Trump leaves the White House. This means re-equipping air defences, trying to buy Russian Sukhoi jets, expanding stocks of longer-range ballistic missiles, and keeping nuclear facilities away from UN inspectors.
Araghchi faces daily questions from the public about lifting the fatwa on possessing a nuclear bomb. One of the nuclear scientists killed by the US in June, Fereydoon Abbasi, had advocated for nuclear-tipped drones as a possible way of bypassing the fatwa on weapons of mass destruction.
Foad Izadi, an associate professor at Tehran University, explained the government's dilemma: "There is a lot of pressure on the current government from the reformists to negotiate more but there is pressure from the other side saying Iran cannot afford to be surprised again." Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh described the current period as "a battle of repair and recovery that will decide the future" between Israel and Iran.
The limitations of Iran's soft-power ambitions were starkly illustrated when a design week showcasing Iranian creativity across 64 Tehran venues was shut down over "safety hazards" - though the real reason appeared to be social media videos showing women without hijabs. This incident reveals the entrenched conservative forces that any new Iran must overcome, suggesting that despite faint outlines of a different nation emerging, the battle for transformation will be momentous.
