Protests across Iran are escalating, driven by a severe economic crisis and heightened international tensions over the country's nuclear ambitions, placing unprecedented strain on its theocratic government.
Economic Collapse Fuels Widespread Unrest
The Iranian rial is in free fall, now trading at approximately 1.4 million to the US dollar. This currency collapse has triggered a broader economic disaster, with annual inflation running at around 40%. Prices for essential goods like meat and rice have soared, squeezing ordinary citizens.
In December, the government introduced a new pricing tier for its heavily subsidised petrol, raising the cost of some of the world's cheapest fuel and adding to public anger. Officials have indicated plans to review and potentially increase these prices every three months, signalling further hardship ahead.
What began as demonstrations by merchants in Tehran has rapidly spread. According to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, protests have now been recorded in over 170 locations across 25 of Iran's 31 provinces. The agency reports at least 15 fatalities and more than 580 arrests. The unrest continues despite a warning from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that "rioters must be put in their place."
Regional Alliances Weaken as Nuclear Stalemate Continues
Iran's foreign policy and regional influence are under severe pressure. Its "Axis of Resistance"—a network of allied countries and militant groups—has been significantly weakened in recent years. Israel has severely degraded Hamas in Gaza, and Hezbollah in Lebanon has lost top leaders to Israeli strikes. In a major blow, Iran's key ally in Syria, President Bashar al-Assad, was overthrown in a lightning offensive in December 2024.
Simultaneously, tensions over Iran's nuclear programme remain critically high. Prior to a US bombing of its nuclear sites in June, following a 12-day war with Israel, Iran had been enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels. The Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned Iran could potentially build up to 10 nuclear bombs if it decided to weaponise its programme. While US intelligence believes Iran has not yet begun a weapons programme, it acknowledges activities that position it to do so.
Although Iran recently stated it has halted uranium enrichment at all sites—a gesture towards potential negotiations—no significant talks have occurred since the June conflict. The return of UN sanctions in September over its atomic work has further crippled the economy.
Historic Tensions with the US Shape Current Crisis
The relationship between Iran and the United States, fraught for decades, adds a volatile layer to the current crisis. The 2015 nuclear deal, which offered sanctions relief in exchange for limits on Iran's programme, collapsed after President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the US in 2018.
Recent actions have escalated tensions further. A new threat from President Trump warned that if Iran "violently kills peaceful protesters," the US "will come to their rescue." This warning took on sharper meaning after American troops captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, a longtime Iranian ally.
The situation inside Iran remains difficult to fully assess. State media provides scant coverage of the protests, and journalists face severe restrictions, including travel permits and threats of arrest. Online videos offer only fragmented glimpses of the turmoil, underscoring the challenges in verifying the full scale of the dissent shaking the Islamic Republic.
