North Korea’s recent missile test from a naval destroyer, praised by leader Kim Jong-un as proof of progress in arming ships with nuclear weapons, is seen as a deliberate signal amid the US and Israeli bombardment of Iran. Analysts believe the widening Middle East conflict has reinforced Pyongyang’s conviction that nuclear weapons are essential for regime survival.
“Kim must have thought Iran was attacked like that because it didn’t have nuclear weapons,” said Song Seong-jong, a former South Korean defence ministry official. The North’s nuclear programme, which began with its first test in 2006, has accelerated despite UN sanctions and US diplomatic efforts. A 2025 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates North Korea has assembled about 50 warheads and has fissile material for up to 40 more.
Pyongyang condemned the US and Israeli airstrikes as an “illegal act of aggression” but stopped short of naming President Trump, leaving the door open for talks. Kim has indicated willingness to negotiate if Washington respects North Korea’s status as a nuclear state. “If the United States withdraws its policy of confrontation… there is no reason why we cannot get along well with the US,” state media quoted him as saying.
However, analysts are divided on whether the Iran war creates new opportunities for dialogue or pushes North Korea further inward. Sydney Seiler, a former US special envoy, argued that Trump’s use of military force makes Kim less likely to seek talks. Others, like Cho Han-bum of the Korea Institute for National Unification, believe Kim’s desire for long-term survival and his rumoured rapport with Trump could draw him back to negotiations, especially as a nuclear-armed state.
Speculation is mounting that Kim and Trump could meet when the US president visits China later this month. If talks occur, Kim would negotiate from a position of strength, having secured a nuclear deterrent that he believes guarantees his regime’s survival.
